Tags: volatility | sentiment | ratio | bull

Volatility Continues to Impact Sentiment Indicators

By    |   Tuesday, 21 Oct 2014 08:08 AM

The S&P 500 has now lost ground for each of the past four weeks. Had it not been for the huge rally on Friday, last week's loss would have been much worse than the 1.02 percent it ended up being.

As the market continues to see increased volatility, the sentiment indicators continue to reach levels of pessimism that we haven't seen in several years.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was up another 3.5 percent last week, but it was up as much as 46 percent prior to Friday's rally. The indicator eclipsed the 30 level for the first time since December 2011.

The 21-day moving average on the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio rose to 0.6971, the highest this indicator has been since November 2012.

It wasn't that long ago that I was worried about the ratio slipping below the 0.5 level for the first time in four years, now it could go above the 0.7 level for the first time in almost two years.

The one sentiment indicator that hasn't been moving much lately is the AAII Sentiment Survey — specifically the ratio of bulls to bears.

In the last three weeks, we have seen the bullish percentages come in at 39.0 percent, 39.9 percent and 42.7 percent. The bearish readings that accompanied those readings were 30.5 percent, 31.0 percent and 33.7 percent.

Those combinations have produced bull to bear ratios of 1.28, 1.29 and 1.27.

I have data for the AAII ratio going back to 1999 and there have only been two instances where the ratio has seen such little change during a three-week period and the other one came in February 2007.

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The S&P 500 has now lost ground for each of the past four weeks. Had it not been for the huge rally on Friday, last week's loss would have been much worse than the 1.02 percent it ended up being.
volatility, sentiment, ratio, bull
273
2014-08-21
Tuesday, 21 Oct 2014 08:08 AM
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