Tags: AAII | CBOE | sentiment | bullish

Bears Outnumber Bulls in Latest AAII Sentiment Survey

By    |   Tuesday, 29 Jul 2014 07:28 AM

During the course of the last 3 ½ months, the market has risen just over 6 percent.

The S&P 500 was coming to the end of a streak where it alternated from gains to losses for 10 straight weeks in mid-April, but even during that stretch, the direction had a slight upward bias as the gains were bigger than the losses were in most cases.

What is surprising is that the AAII Sentiment Survey ratio is right back where it was back in April.

In last week's survey, the bullish percentage fell from 39 percent to 29.63 percent while the bearish percentage fell from 30.5 percent to 29.94 percent. This put the ratio at 0.99, the first time since April 16 that the ratio is lower than 1.0.

The AAII survey is made up of individual investors, and the ratio tends to be high at market tops and low at market bottoms.

Seeing the ratio below 1.0 after a three-month rally is unusual and it suggests that the market should keep rallying.

Granted the ratio went up to as high as 2.1 on June 12, but it has experienced a gradual fall in the last five weeks.

It is also worth noting that the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and the 21-day moving average on the CBOE Equity Put/Call ratio have both been rising in recent weeks, which means investors are shifting toward a more bearish stance, as does the AAII ratio falling.

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The AAII Sentiment Survey ratio is right back where it was back in April. In last week's survey, the bullish percentage fell from 39 percent to 29.63 percent while the bearish percentage fell from 30.5 percent to 29.94 percent.
AAII, CBOE, sentiment, bullish
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2014-28-29
Tuesday, 29 Jul 2014 07:28 AM
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