The Federal Reserve is sticking with its massive easing program for too long, and that's going to cause trouble, says David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates.
"This Fed is erring on the side of uber-accommodation far too long and is playing with fire," he wrote in
The Financial Post of Canada.
While the central bank has curbed its bond purchases to $35 billion a month from $85 billion last year, its balance sheet has expanded to a record $4.3 trillion. And its federal funds rate target remains at a record low of zero to 0.25 percent.
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The real fed funds rate may reach negative 0.5 percent by the time full employment is reached, Rosenberg argued.
"If this forecast proves prescient, it is difficult to believe inflation expectations at some point won’t become unhinged and send long-term bond yields substantially higher," he noted.
The Fed "totally shrugged off the noticeable pickup in total and core inflation in the past three to four months," Rosenberg stated. Consumer prices rose 2.1 percent in the year through May.
"To be sure, the Fed may well be long overdue to get a macro call right. If it is anywhere in the ball park this time around, the cyclicals, not to mention the inflation hedges such as energy and other industrial commodities, are really going to start to rip and the stock market will set new higher highs," he added.
"No doubt excessive valuations will act as a constraint, but limiting the gains is not the same as reversing the direction."
If Vivek Ranadive, founder and CEO of Tibco Software, is right, Rosenberg might not have to worry about Fed policymakers' views. "The Federal Reserve of the future will be a computer program,"
Ranadive told CNBC.
"I fully expect that the Fed will be displaced by a closed-loop computer program where you will constantly be making measurements and making adjustments based on what you're experiencing."
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