For the last 10 weeks, large speculators in oil have been net long more than 300,000 contracts on the Commitment of Traders reports.

Part of the reason for the optimistic bets on oil has been the unrest in the Middle East and the potential for military action in Syria by the United States.

While you might have expected oil prices to spike as a result of the bullish bets and the tensions in the Middle East, the price of crude has been range bound for the last 10 weeks — locked between $105 and $110 per barrel.

The chart and the Commitment of Traders reports are reminding me of February 2012. Approximately 18 months ago, oil prices were struggling to move above the $110 level and the large speculators had built a huge net long position.

You may recall that from March 2012 through June 2012, oil prices fell all the way down to $80 a barrel, a 27 percent decline.

Now we have oil prices hitting resistance at $110 and a huge net long position by large speculators. If that weren't enough to consider a bearish bet on oil, you should also consider that one of the drivers behind the bullish bets (the Syrian conflict) has been averted for now.

I can see oil prices falling to at least $95 a barrel and possibly even lower over the coming months.