There's a good chance for the stock market to slide 10 to 20 percent in the second quarter, says Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at S&P Capital IQ.

"We've gone 30 months without a decline of 10 percent or more [in the S&P 500 index]," he told CNBC. "The average is 18 months. It's just a matter of time."

The S&P 500 has dipped 3.5 percent since hitting a record high April 4, and the Nasdaq Composite index has fallen 8 percent since reaching a 13-year peak March 6.

Editor's Note: New Warning — Stocks on Verge of Major Collapse

The second quarter has often been unkind to stocks in the past, Stovall explained. "The reason why I said a swoon before June is that the second quarter is by the far the worst of all quarters on both a price change and frequency of decline basis since World War II for the S&P 500," he noted.

"None of [this] points to a guarantee, but simply in my opinion increases the likelihood some time in this second quarter."

If stocks do fall 10 to 20 percent, don't be surprised to see a quick rebound, as that's the historical pattern, Stovall predicted.

"I remind people the best three quarters immediately follow the worst two. Declines of 10 to 20 percent — and we've had 19 since World War II — take an average of four months to get back to break even."

Some investors voiced enthusiasm for stocks after the S&P 500 registered a 0.8 percent gain Monday.

"Things are a little bit better on the earnings front and a little bit better on the economic front," Michael Arone, head of portfolio strategy at State Street Global Advisors, told The Wall Street Journal. "Coming off that spring thaw, we're seeing some good numbers."

The government announced Monday that retail sales rose 1.1 percent in March.

Editor's Note: New Warning — Stocks on Verge of Major Collapse

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