Famed investor Jim Rogers' crystal ball was working well two years ago when, at the height of gold prices, he warned gold would plummet to $1,200 per ounce. Now that it's hit that level, he thinks $900 could be the real bottom.
In an interview with Business Insider, Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, said gold had been rising for about 12 years when it hit a high of $1,900 per ounce in 2011, so a correction was way overdue.
"There were lots and lots of mystics who were convinced that gold was holy. That gold could not go down, that gold had to go up. And that's the reason I think gold hasn't made its final bottom yet," he explained.
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"You know when you have people that are faithful, or true believers, you usually don't hit a true bottom until most of those people get washed out."
Rogers said one primary factor in the drop in gold prices is that in India, the world's largest buyer of gold, the government is trying to discourage gold imports because of that nation's huge balance of trade deficit. Other nations now putting limits on gold purchases include France and Germany, he noted.
According to Rogers, the bottom in gold may not come until 2014 or later, but in the meantime he is keeping his own gold holdings intact because he thinks the longer-term bull market in the precious metal is still intact.
"I'm not selling my gold," he told Business Insider. "I'm skeptical, even though I expect gold may go down even more to $1,000 to $900. A 50 percent correction would be $960 or whatever it is. Now 50 percent corrections are quite normal in markets. What's not normal is for something to go up 12 years in a row.
"The bull market's not over," he added. "Gold is going to eventually make new highs."
Not all experts agree that gold still has a new leg lower ahead.
Strategists at Deutsche Bank said in a client note that gold's correction might already have occurred, MarketWatch reported.
"Lessons from history suggest that although gold-price losses have been extreme, the extent of the price correction today is still some way short of the percentage declines that occurred in 1980-1981," the note stated.
However, in that earlier era, U.S. short-term interest rates hit 20 percent, a much different rate environment than today.
Although the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy may be a strong headwind to gold prices, "it is possible that the major part of the gold price correction has already occurred," according to the strategists.
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