The stock market isn't likely to suffer a major pullback just yet, but one is coming this fall, says Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist for Bank of America.
Bull markets don't usually end with cash levels as high and leverage levels as low as they are now, he writes in a commentary obtained by
MarketWatch. Rallies also don't usually fizzle with tobacco representing the only market subsector at an all-time high, he said.
"We think a bigger 10 to 15 percent correction is more likely in autumn, as Fed QE [quantitative easing] ends and rate-hike expectations grow."
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To be sure, Hartnett maintains his prediction that the S&P 500 index will end the year at 2,000. The index closed Monday at 1,830.61.
BofA recommends overweighting technology, energy and industrial shares and underweighting consumer discretionary, utility and telecommunications shares, MarketWatch reports.
Hartnett predicts that the 2014 rallies in emerging markets, bonds and gold will end this month. That's because investors will be quick to dump "extreme positions" and central bankers will turn dovish again, he explains.
Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania, tells
CNBC
that the Dow Jones Industrial Average can reach his long-standing year-end target of 18,000 if economic growth totals 3.5 to 4 percent in the next three quarters, as some economists expect.
The Dow closed at 16173.24 Monday.
Editor's Note: 18.79% Annual Returns ... for Life?
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