More experts are becoming increasingly concerned that a rout in emerging markets will lead to a worldwide economic crisis.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, international business editor at the U.K.-based Telegraph, is one of the latest voices warning that the plunging stock markets and currencies in emerging markets could prompt a worldwide financial crisis and even a relapse into a recession.
The Federal Reserve had better take notice, he writes.
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"The exodus of money from emerging markets that we have seen so far is nothing compared with what could happen if this episode is mishandled," Evans-Pritchard warns.
Emerging markets are supposed to be more resilient now because they have $9 trillion in reserves. But drawing down reserves to support their currencies means raising rates and increasing pain in already troubled countries.
They're also supposedly now more resilient because they borrow in their own currencies. Yet some countries, the Telegraph editor says, "will surely be tempted to stop fighting markets, let their currencies slide and inflict the pain on foreigners — that is to say, on your pension fund."
If emerging market countries choose that option, they will "inflict a deflationary trade shock" on the West, he notes.
The global economy is completely different from what it was in the 1980s or 1990s, when emerging market crises struck. In those times, more countries were isolated from the world economy or represented just a small part of it.
Now, emerging markers are half the world economy.
"We are in entirely uncharted waters," Evans-Pritchard cautions.
"If the stakes were high then, they are higher now."
In a previous crisis emanating from an emerging market, Russia's default in 1998, the Fed scrambled to avert a meltdown by slashing rates and rescuing hedge fund Long Term Capital Management.
This is time, Fed officials are offering dismissive comments.
For instance, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart stated, "Other countries simply have to take that as a reality and adjust to us."
"The talk from Fed corridors strikes me as dangerously insouciant," Evans-Pritchard asserts.
Observers worry that the Fed is causing a spreading economic meltdown by winding down its quantitative easing stimulus too soon and too quickly.
The Fed, critics say, is at least partly responsible for the emerging market bubble because its stimulus prompted investments to flood into those markets.
Bank of Japan Board member Yoshihisa Morimoto is also concerned.
"The global economic recovery remains fragile, so there's huge uncertainty on how a sharp outflow of funds could affect financial markets and global growth," he said in a speech to business leaders, according to Reuters.
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