The outbreak of the coronavirus and China’s efforts to stop the spread mean the economy will grow slower this quarter than first thought, according to economists.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc, UBS Group AG and Macquarie Group Ltd. are among those cutting their growth forecast for both the first quarter and the full year, while others expect material shocks to gross domestic product.
Reflecting the worsening situation, Barclays Bank Plc.‘s Jian Chang now sees a worst-case scenario knocking 2.2 percentage points off first-quarter growth, a downgrade from her Jan. 22 call that the impact would be “transitory” and limited to certain sectors.
Economists forecasts about the economy
| Firm |
Report date |
1Q - new |
1Q - old |
2020 - new |
2020 - old |
Comments |
| Oxford Economics |
Feb. 3 |
Down by more than 2 ppts |
6% |
5.4% |
6% |
High economic impact but short-lived |
| Macquarie |
Feb. 3 |
4% |
5.8% |
5.6% |
5.9% |
“Getting worse before getting better” |
| UBS |
Feb. 3 |
3.8% |
5.9% |
5.4% |
6% |
Forecast biased to downside risk |
| Bloomberg Economics |
Jan. 31 |
4.5% |
5.9% |
5.7% |
5.9% |
Bigger blow if virus extends into 2Q |
| Standard Chartered |
Jan. 31 |
4.5% |
6% |
5.8% |
6.1% |
Infection under control sooner than SARS |
| Goldman Sachs |
Jan. 31 |
4% |
5.6% |
5.5% |
5.9% |
Debt-intensive stimulus expected |
| Citi |
Jan. 29 |
4.8% |
5.9% |
5.5% |
5.8% |
Policy intervention “critical” |
| Nomura |
Jan. 29 |
Down materially from 6% pace in 4Q 2019 |
5.8% |
- |
5.7% |
Impact “harder than SARS”
|
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