China’s expansion slowed to the weakest pace in six quarters, testing leaders’ commitment to keep reining in a credit boom and pollution as risks mount of missing a 7.5 percent annual growth target.
Gross domestic product rose 7.4 percent in the January-to-March period from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday in Beijing, compared with the 7.3 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of analysts. Industrial production increased 8.8 percent in March, less than projected, while first-quarter fixed-asset investment trailed estimates.
An extended slowdown would put pressure on Premier Li Keqiang to add stimulus or ease up on efforts to curb financial risks and property-price gains after this month outlining spending and tax relief to support growth. A weaker Chinese economy would limit a pickup in global expansion forecast by the International Monetary Fund and restrain demand for commodities including copper and iron ore.
“It could take time for the authorities’ pro-growth policy measures to filter through into the economy,” Qu Hongbin, chief China economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong, said in a note before Wednesday’s data.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index of stocks was up 0.4 percent at 10:04 a.m. local time after the report, while the yuan was little changed.
Previous Quarter
Expansion slowed from a previously reported 7.7 percent in the fourth quarter. The economy grew a seasonally adjusted 1.4 percent from the previous three months, compared with the 1.5 percent median estimate of economists and a revised 1.7 percent in the October-December period.
The increase in industrial production compares with the 9 percent median estimate of analysts and 8.6 percent in the January-February period. Retail sales rose 12.2 percent from a year earlier, compared with a 12.1 percent median estimate and 11.8 percent in the first two months of the year.
Fixed-asset investment excluding rural households increased 17.6 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said. That trailed the 18 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey and the 17.9 percent pace in the January-February period.
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