Woody and Buzz Lightyear are returning to the big screen this weekend, this time in 3-D. How well the new "Toy Story 3" movie opens could swing Disney Inc.'s shares, wrote an analyst Thursday.

Caris & Co. analyst David Miller said in a research note that he believes Disney shares will rise if opening weekend box office revenue tops $100 million. He expects shares to fall if this weekend's box office take comes in below $80 million.

Disney's stock rose 16 cents to $34.95 in afternoon trading.

Miller rates the stock "Above Average" and has a $39 price target on Disney's shares.