The next bull market correction is unlikely to stem from a bubble in overheated stocks, but rather from fundamental ills such as economic weakness, poor corporate earnings or central bank mistakes, Wall Street pros tell
Investment News.
Standard & Poor's recently lowered its 2014 GDP forecasts to 2.6 percent from 3.1 percent, and it's not alone in its cloudy outlook, Investment News said.
"If we don't get a re-acceleration in growth now that all the government uncertainty is out of the way, I think that might cause a market correction, because people have largely marked up their growth estimates — not only in the U.S. but globally — for next year," predicted John Canally, an economist with LPL Financial.
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Lee Partridge, chief investment officer at Salient Partners, told Investment News that labor force participation has declined since 2009 at the same percentage as the jobless rate. Both have fallen 3.2 percent, which calls into question the true strength of the consumer.
Partridge said the weak underlying employment results mean that median-income families are "really, really stretched right now."
Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network, said earnings expectations among investors are too lofty.
"I think we're really getting to the point where there isn't too much else we can do to meet those expectations," he predicted. "The gap is going to come when the market starts to realize, no, we're not actually going to see that kind of earnings growth going forward."
Valuations have risen from about 14 times earnings on the S&P 500 to about 17. But according to McMillan, "there really hasn't been this huge increase in the bottom line. It's really been more a function of valuations continuing to expand in the wake of really high profit margins."
Russ Koesterich, chief investment strategist at BlackRock Inc., predicted the Federal Reserve's campaign to taper its asset purchases could have some unwanted impact, such as forcing mortgage rates higher or pushing investors to abandon riskier bonds.
For millions of Americans, a stock market correction may not have as much consumer impact as might be expected, according to
CNNMoney.
Stock ownership, even in retirement accounts, reached a record low of 52 percent in 2013, down from 62 percent only five years previously, according to a Gallup survey, CNNMoney reported.
Some economists believe growing home prices and an improving job market have far greater impact on most Americans than a buoyant stock market does, CNNMoney said.
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