Tags: Roubini | emerging market | tail | risk

Roubini: Emerging Market Turmoil Provides 'Tail Risk' for Global Economy

By    |   Thursday, 30 January 2014 08:19 AM EST

The carnage among emerging market currencies hasn't ended, despite interest rate increases this week in India, Turkey and South Africa.

The turmoil has spilled over to hurt developed markets as well, and the damage could end up being serious, says Nouriel Roubini, an economist at New York University.

"There are still some emerging markets that are fragile," he tells MarketWatch.

Editor’s Note:
38 Trades That Could Turn $1,000 Into $49,000

"The combination of Argentina's currency crisis, a slowdown in China and political turmoil in places like Thailand, Ukraine and Turkey can have an effect not only on emerging markets, but can also lead to transmission of risk to advanced economies and equities."

That makes the entire global economy vulnerable, Roubini argues. "So we have to worry about tail risks in the global economy, some of them coming from emerging markets, especially a Chinese hard landing."

The weak economies of Europe also present potential danger. "The eurozone could be a source also of political and policy risk."

Even the United States isn't risk-free, he notes. "The Fed may exit [quantitative easing] sooner than people expect, and that may also lead to a re-pricing."

The interest rate hikes from India, Turkey and South Africa threw investors for a loop, says Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at the Lindsey Group.

"I think that on the flip side of the rate hikes, where people thought this would stabilize things, the extent of the hikes are now freaking people out," he tells CNBC.

Editor’s Note: 38 Trades That Could Turn $1,000 Into $49,000

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The carnage among emerging market currencies hasn't ended, despite interest rate increases this week in India, Turkey and South Africa.
Roubini,emerging market,tail,risk
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2014-19-30
Thursday, 30 January 2014 08:19 AM
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