Although most experts are bullish about the economy and stock market for 2014, InvestorPlace.com editor Jeff Reeves warns that significant risks could cause a crash.
In an article for
MarketWatch, Reeves outlines three threats to the market.
One is slow job growth. December's dismal job figures could be an anomaly, as many economists say. Record cold weather due to a polar vortex may have slowed hiring, and jobs growth may rebound sharply. In any case, employment statistics are "inherently volatile," Reeves explains.
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Then again, maybe the December report wasn't a fluke. Reeves points to bad news on the jobs front: Macy's plans 2,500 layoffs and Dell is working on cuts that may impact 30 percent of its work force.
Corporate earnings are another worry, he says. Corporate profits increased recently because of cost cutting and stock buybacks — not because of growth. Analysts' consensus calls for more profit growth this year and earnings per share for the S&P 500 reaching a record $120 per share.
They could be wrong. They often are, Reeves notes. Many S&P 500 firms have announced that their fourth-quarter earnings may fall short of expectations. Stocks of firms announcing earnings warnings, like Luluemom, SodaStream, GameStop and Best Buy, suffered dearly.
"The bar is clearly moving down, not up," Reeves states, warning that signs of stalling corporate earnings growth "will certainly spark a ruin for the exits."
A possible credit contraction is another major worry. Consumer credit in November grew by the smallest amount in seven months. In addition, mortgage lending is down substantially. For instance, Wells Fargo, the nation's largest mortgage lender, saw a 60 percent drop in mortgage business in the fourth quarter from the previous year.
A credit contraction is typically a "sign of risk aversion and decreased liquidity," he cautions. Without adequate credit, consumers will have a hard time buying more cars and houses and fueling an economic rebound.
Others say a market that keeps rising to eventually become a bubble is a risk this year. If equities continue rising like they did last year in what's called a "melt-up," a bubble could prompt an implosion much like the collapse in 2000, experts tell
USA Today.
"Melt-ups are fun when they are happening but they tend to end in much bigger corrections," Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, tells USA Today.
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