Tags: Krake | Fed | German | Japan

Money Manager Krake: Prepare for Stock Market Volatility

By    |   Tuesday, 20 August 2013 08:00 AM EDT

Fasten your seatbelt for a rough ride ahead, advises Paul Krake, founder of investment firm View from the Peak.

"We have so much event risk over the next six weeks: tapering, German elections and a decision on the Japanese consumption tax. Markets are going to be incredibly volatile," Krake told CNBC.

Perhaps the biggest potential cause of stock market volatility is that the Federal Reserve might begin shrinking its $85 billion-a-month-bond-purchasing program this year, and it might announce its tapering plans to after its meeting set for Sept. 17 to 18.

Editor’s Note: Buy These 4 Stocks Before 399% Stock Market Rally!

Some experts predict the Fed will slash bond purchases by $20 billion a month, according to CNBC.

Interest rates will probably spike and stock markets could tumble, at least temporarily. However, Krake thinks the drop might not be as dramatic as widely expected.

"You're going to have a near-term correction of around 5 percent [in the Standard & Poor's 500], maybe a little more, in the big picture that's nothing," he explained. "There is going to be a realization that despite that fact that the Fed is going to be buying less bonds, they are still going to be buying bonds, just at a slower pace. At the end of the day, policy is very constructive for equities."

Shortly after the Fed committee meeting are elections in Germany, which may prompt more volatility. Although Chancellor Angela Merkel is heavily favored, Merkel recently warned her supporters not to become complacent, saying the election will be close.

"Germany is the most important economy and most important leader in Europe. It will be a positive response when she wins, because sometimes markets don't look at opinion polls," Krake noted, adding that markets would "get trashed" if Merkel lost.

Finally, Japan's possible consumption tax increase is another threat to stability. Japan may consider increasing the tax from 5 percent to 8 percent in April and to 10 percent by October 2015. Delaying a decision may prompt Japanese stocks to drop, Krake told CNBC.

"If they walk on this, foreigners will react badly and dump Japanese equities. It's not a yen weakening event, it's a yen strengthening event as that's a risk-off scenario."

Krake isn't the only one expecting volatility.

"People want to take some money off the table, be a little more defensive,” Espen Furnes of Storebrand Asset Management told Bloomberg. "The reporting season is more-or-less done, so we’re in for a couple of months of a lot of macro news and, therefore, things will be more volatile.

"The Fed tapering issue is well-known and well-flagged," Furnes said. "Tapering news will bring further volatility, but it won’t break the market."

Editor’s Note: Buy These 4 Stocks Before 399% Stock Market Rally!

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InvestingAnalysis
Fasten your seatbelt for a rough ride ahead, advises Paul Krake, founder of investment firm View from the Peak.
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2013-00-20
Tuesday, 20 August 2013 08:00 AM
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