Craig Johnson, managing director of Piper Jaffray and one of the major bulls on Wall Street, predicts a bit more gains for stocks, but then a plunge this year that will take the market down by as much as 20 percent before an upward trend continues.
The roller coaster ride that Johnson foresees is tied to market-timing gauges he uses that track stock leadership and the number of stocks going up versus those going down, among other factors.
In a report titled "A Hop, A Drop and A Pop In 2014," Johnson calls for the S&P 500 to rise to about 2,000, followed by a slide to as low as 1,600 before resuming its upward path,
USA Today reported.
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After the plunge, Johnson's crystal ball tags the S&P 500 to achieve a new height of 2,100 before the end of the year.
According to Johnson, stocks often hit trouble in mid-term election years and in the months following a leadership change at the Federal Reserve — both of which are occurring this year.
"We reiterate our bullish outlook for stocks, but we believe 2014 will be a more volatile year," says Johnson.
Meanwhile, some wonder whether the current earnings season results will be enough to keep the stock market at lofty levels.
"It's our expectation that earnings will recover this year," Gina Martin Adams, institutional equities strategist at Wells Fargo Securities, tells
CNBC. "I'd like to see the corporate-spending sensitive areas — tech and industrials — pick up the ball from what's been a consumer-centric recovery so far."
Analyst estimates call for S&P 500 earnings to rise about 7 percent for the fourth quarter, the network reports.
"The trouble is balancing what could be a relatively dicey fourth quarter with, hopefully, some commentary that supports a better future," Adams notes. "I think companies will be challenged to confirm analysts' perceptions."
Some of the U.S. stock market darlings of 2013 — all of them hot "story stocks" that charmed investors — are so far proving to be the dogs of the new year. Those jilted former favorites include Best Buy, Netflix, Twitter and GameStop, according to
Paul La Monica, assistant managing editor of CNNMoney.
"All of these companies have shown hints that they are far from perfect," La Monica writes. "And that usually has momentum investors fleeing for the exits faster than bugs running away from a can of Raid."
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