A "mini rotation" from bonds to equities is underway. When the "great rotation" occurs, the U.S. dollar is set to be the winner among the currencies, says Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Since late May, when the Fed minutes boosted expectations that the central bank will taper its asset purchases, record amounts of cash has moved out of bonds and interest rates around the globe are creeping up, according to CNBC.
And this "mini rotation" we're seeing is the beginning of the "great rotation," which will see money flood into equities from bonds, according to BofA Merrill Lynch analysts.
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CNBC says the bank used the recent uptick in bond yields to calculate which currencies will likely benefit from those heavy equity inflows.
"The U.S. dollar is likely to be the best-performing currency. U.S. bond outflows are likely to be of similar magnitude with that in the rest of G10, but the U.S. dollar may benefit from stronger equity inflows. Equity flows into Japan may be even stronger than into the U.S., but to a large extent [that] is likely to be driven by a weaker Japanese yen to begin with," the BofA Merrill Lynch research note states.
The bank's research team concluded that when the "great rotation" takes place, currencies in countries that have experienced the largest equity inflows and the smallest bond outflows since the Fed tapering debate started should do well.
However, the thing about BofA Merrill Lynch's research and the potential benefits for the dollar is that it's all theoretical. And skeptics are increasingly pointing to data that dispels the whole rotation theory.
Business Insider says there is one place where you can find evidence of a rotation occurring — among BofA Merrill Lynch's private clients.
In fact, Business Insider says BofA Merrill Lynch coined the term "great rotation" in 2011 and boosted its popularity in late 2012 by declaring 2013 to be the year when this dramatic event would occur.
At the start of the year the media latched on and got the public acquainted with the term and the hype. The rapid flood of money into equities seemed to confirm the concept of a great rotation. But, money also continued flowing into bonds.
Last month saw another rapid flow of cash into equities. U.S. stocks alone attracted $2 billion per day during the first 12 days of trading, according to Business Insider. But again, money has continued to flow into bonds.
Meanwhile, BofA Merrill Lynch's private clients, the retail investors, pulled $21 from bonds and cash and sank $23 billion into equity funds this year.
BofA Merrill Lynch has been wildly successful selling the concept of the "great rotation," but only to its private clients.
The rest of the investment community isn't necessarily buying it, not even BofA Merrill Lynch's hedge fund and institutional clients, according to says Business Insider.
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