Tags: Arends | bonds | default | countries

MarketWatch's Arends: Full Faith and Credit of US Bonds Is Now Missing

By    |   Friday, 11 October 2013 08:20 AM EDT

MarketWatch columnist Brett Arends identified five countries whose bonds may now be safer than those of the United States, thanks to the political turmoil and heedless deficit spending in Washington, D.C.

In essence, the traditional full faith and credit of the U.S. government may no longer be worth the debt paper it's written on, according to Arends.

"Today there is a non-trivial risk that the U.S. government, which appears to have at last collapsed into political dysfunction because we never really ended the struggles over federal power that brought about the Civil War, will default on its debt payments later this month," he wrote, referring to the debt ceiling deadline of Oct. 17.

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Arends maintains the risk of default, "even if only temporary, is now real."

As proof he noted there is now an active market in collateralized debt swaps that investors can buy as insurance against the United States welching on its obligations.

FactSet reports the cost of insuring government bonds against default has more than tripled in the past few weeks, Arends said, to 40 basis points, or 0.4 percent of the bond, for a one-year term.

"The good news is that there are several countries whose bonds must be considered safer than Treasurys. These are countries with, above all, incredibly sound public finances, where public debt is low in relation to the size of the economy."

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates U.S. government net debt is now 89 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Meanwhile, New Zealand's net debt is 29 percent of GDP, Australia's is 13 percent, Denmark's is 10 percent, and Sweden and Norway both actually have amassed net assets that exceed their liabilities — they are debt free.

All of those countries' bonds are safer buys than U.S. bonds at the moment, according to Arends — and what's more, some of them even pay a higher rate to investors.

"A 10-year Treasury bond, backed by the full faith and credit of John Boehner, Harry Reid, Ted Cruz and Barack Obama, pays just 2.6 percent annual interest, or about the same as the predicted rate of inflation over the next 10 years," he wrote.

Meanwhile, a 10-year government bond from New Zealand pays 4.6 percent, Australia pays 3.9 percent and Norway pays 3 percent, he noted.

The IMF this week urged global governments to batten down their hatches as the United States gets ready to taper its massive economic stimulus and grapples with its budget stalemate, The Wall Street Journal reported.

The IMF is assuming the United States will settle its financial differences quickly, but said an extended government shutdown could be "quite harmful," according to The Journal.

"Even more importantly, a failure to promptly raise the debt ceiling, leading to a U.S. selective default, could seriously damage the global economy," the IMF stated.

Editor’s Note: Weird Trick Adds $1,000 to Your Social Security Checks

Related Stories:

IMF: US Debt Default 'Would Be a Worldwide Shock'

Treasury Says Default Has Potential to Be Catastrophic

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InvestingAnalysis
MarketWatch columnist Brett Arends identified five countries whose bonds may now be safer than those of the United States, thanks to the political turmoil and heedless deficit spending in Washington, D.C.
Arends,bonds,default,countries
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2013-20-11
Friday, 11 October 2013 08:20 AM
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