* Further easing depends on economy's evolution: Dudley
* Says gasoline prices 'definitely' a risk
(Rewrites with comments on QE3)
By Jonathan Spicer
MELVILLE, New York, March 19 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal
Reserve has not yet decided whether to embark on a third round
of quantitative easing, or QE3, though it remains an option, an
influential Fed official said on Monday.
New York Fed President William Dudley, a close ally of
Chairman Ben Bernanke, painted a mixed picture of the U.S.
economy, tempering recent signs the recovery is gaining speed
with warnings that it could just as easily stall out.
"Nothing has been decided," he said of QE3, in which the Fed
would make large-scale asset purchases in an attempt to lower
rates and give the economy another controversial shot of
adrenaline.
"It all depends on how the economy evolves," Dudley added.
"It's about costs and benefits, and if we get to a point where
we think the benefits of another program of QE outweighs the
costs, then we'll certainly do so."
Dudley, like Bernanke in recent testimony to Congress,
defended the central bank's ultra-easy policy stance but seemed
to temper any talk of exactly what more it was prepared to do to
help along the recovery and ratchet down the unemployment rate,
which remains high 8.3 percent.
After a meeting in Washington last week, the Fed's
policy-setting committee made no policy change and gave few
clues how it interpreted some recent jobs growth, coupled as it
has been with worries over GDP growth and oil price-driven
inflation.
Dudley said U.S. economic activity is not yet strong or
sustained enough to put a dent in the economy's "slack," which
is keeping many Americans out of work some three years after the
deep recession ended.
"The incoming data on the U.S. economy has been a bit more
upbeat of late, suggesting that the recovery may be finally
establishing a somewhat firmer footing," Dudley said, citing
expanding GDP late last year, payrolls, sales of motor vehicles,
and somewhat firmer housing starts.
"While these developments are certainly encouraging, it is
far too soon to conclude that we are out of the woods," Dudley,
a policy dove with a permanent vote on the Fed's policy-setting
committee, told a gathering of the Long Island Association.
GASOLINE AND OTHER HEADWINDS
The U.S. central bank has kept interest rates near zero
since late 2008 and bought $2.3 trillion in long-term securities
to help revive the economy after the 2007-2009 recession.
Upbeat data so far this year has tempted some, including
some Fed policymakers, to say the recovery is well underway and
that the Fed will take no further steps.
Yet Bernanke and others have said more bond purchases remain
an option. Last year, Dudley was among the most vocal about the
efficacy of buying mortgage-based securities to help revive that
sector of the economy.
Dudley warned that higher gasoline prices are "definitely" a
risk to the world's largest economy, which is heavily dependent
on consumption.
"The upward pressure on prices caused by rising gasoline are
offset by downward pressure on prices caused by all the excess
slack in the U.S. economy," he said. "It's very hard to have an
inflation problem when compensation costs are rising quite
slowly."
The annual rate of core inflation, Dudley argued, "has
peaked and we expect it to begin to decline later this year." He
added that inflation expectations "remain well anchored."
Besides gas, other headwinds include impediments to the
housing sector, fiscal drags at the federal and state levels,
and risks that foreign growth is weaker than expected, Dudley
said.
Asked about a Fed expectation to keep rates low through late
2014, Dudley said: "We view this as the best path to an
early-as-possible economic recovery ... and the earliest
normalization in short term rates."
Bernanke, who along with Dudley spear headed the Fed's
unprecedented and easy policy steps, is set to deliver a public
lecture on Tuesday.
(Editing by Padraic Cassidy)
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