ROCHESTER, N.Y. (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve
should consider curtailing its $600 billion bond buying program
if the economy grows faster than expected, a Fed official known
for his criticism of the asset purchases said Thursday.
Charles Plosser, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of
Philadelphia, said if bond buying doesn't deliver the hoped-for
economic benefits, he would "not infer that we merely need to
increase the size of the program."
Instead, that would be a signal for the Fed to rethink its
analysis of the program's costs and benefits.
"If the economy grows more quickly than I currently
anticipate, the purchase program will need to be reconsidered
and perhaps curtailed before the full $600 billion in purchases
is completed," he said in remarks prepared for delivery to an
economic seminar in Rochester, New York.
Plosser said he remained somewhat skeptical that the
controversial asset-buying plan, announced in November, would
provide much of an economic lift.
The Fed hopes the purchases will spur a stronger recovery
by driving down longer-term interest rates. But Plosser said
the U.S. Treasury could achieve the same effect -- without the
Fed's involvement -- by issuing more short-term securities and
fewer long-term bonds.
The program has drawn complaints at home and abroad.
Critics worry it will spawn asset bubbles and inflation
overseas while doing little to help the U.S. economy.
Plosser, who will be a voting member of the Fed's monetary
policy committee next year, said the risk of sustained
deflation was remote, but if it happened the Fed ought to
consider expanding the asset purchases. However, it would need
to clearly explain that the intent was to combat deflation, not
speed up the recovery.
The Philadelphia Fed president has a reputation as an
inflation "hawk" and regularly expresses concern that the
central bank's swollen balance sheet could provide the kindling
for a dangerous spike in price pressures.
He reiterated Thursday that the latest round of asset
purchases -- often referred to as "QE2" -- will complicate the
Fed's eventual return to a normal monetary policy stance.
"Because the Fed's monetary policy must be forward looking,
the hue and cry from many quarters may be quite loud when it is
time to act," he said. "Even with the best of intentions, if we
don't act aggressively and promptly, we may find ourselves
behind the curve and at risk for substantial inflation."
Plosser expected unemployment to decline gradually, falling
to around 8 percent or 8.5 percent by the end of next year. He
said the latest asset purchase program would probably not do
much to speed the healing process in the labor market.
"Thus, I think that the benefits of the purchase program
may be modest," he said.
(Reporting by Emily Flitter in Rochester; Writing by Emily
Kaiser; Editing by Andrew Hay)
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