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Tags: trump | comey | firing | investors | erratic | investors | markets

An 'Erratic' Trump Could Rattle Global Market Investors

An 'Erratic' Trump Could Rattle Global Market Investors

By    |   Thursday, 11 May 2017 01:32 PM EDT

There has been more comment on President Donald Trump's Twitter feed of a nature that is calculated to build bridges with certain members of Congress.

We also got somewhat better insight into the procedures that led to FBI Director James Comey’s removal from office by Trump, thanks to documents that became available and that helped apparently to ease the initial shock.

Sarah Huckabee Sanders, a White House spokeswoman, gave yesterday interesting comments saying that Trump had been considering dismissing Comey “since the day he was elected.

Maybe it could be helpful to keep in mind that Trump said in April he had “confidence” in Comey, but it was “not too late” to fire him.  

Whatever anyone makes of all this, for markets in the U.S. and elsewhere, there remain a few relevant elements to the story that still need more clarity:

  • The dismissal of Comey could be sighted as evidence of somewhat erratic behavior on the part of Trump. Markets and investors don't like the suggestion of instability as it adds to uncertainty and volatility.
  • Trump’s action has the potential to damage his relations with the Republicans in Congress. Such distress could hurt the administration’s policy priorities such as tax and healthcare reform.
  • In the context of the investigation over Russian involvement in the U.S. presidential election, the president’s action could have a bearing on the U.S.-Russian relations. However, such relations appeared fine yesterday when Trump was shown warmly greeting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Ambassador Sergei Kislyak at the White House. The press communique reads: “The President further emphasized his desire to build a better relationship between the United States and Russia.”

Meanwhile in the relatively predictive world of central banking, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren sounded predictively hawkish noting in a prepared speech that the median forecast among Fed policymakers is for two more increases for this year.

Meanwhile, his own view remains that along with a gradual reduction in the level of the balance sheet, it would still be reasonable to have three rate increases over the remainder of this year, assuming the economy evolves like his forecast envisions.

“The Federal Reserve should continue gradually normalizing monetary policy. This would imply beginning a very gradual reduction of securities held on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet relatively soon, while continuing to use short-term interest rates as the primary monetary policy tool for maintaining sustainable growth – growth that is consistent with the Fed’s dual mandate of maximum sustainable employment and stable prices,” he said.

In Europe, ECB President Mario Draghi gave a prepared speech before the Dutch parliament.

 “The domestic drivers of inflation, namely wages, are not yet responding to the recovery and the narrowing output gap. Maintaining the current very substantial degree of monetary accommodation is still needed for underlying inflation pressures to build up and support headline inflation in the medium term,” he said.  

He also said that the ECB’s own March macroeconomic projections expect annual HICP inflation at 1.7% in 2017, 1.6% in 2018 and 1.7% in 2019.

Draghi hasn't, it appears, started his twelve-step program to overcome his addiction to easing and his remarks before the Dutch parliament stressed that quantitative policy would continue for now.

It’s also interesting to mention that at the event, Draghi was presented a plastic tulip by the son of the first ECB President Wim Duisenberg. Duisenberg's son said: “Before your next conference, or any other conference, look at this tulip. Look at it and think of us.”

Dutch lawmakers chose to look back to a four-century-old blot on the country’s history by handing Draghi the plastic flower — suggestive of the "Tulipmania" — that peaked in 1637 and marked one of modern Europe’s first speculative bubbles.

For investors, it becomes clearer by the day that the Fed’s and the ECB’s monetary policies are evolving in opposite directions.

Of course, this won’t stay like that forever. However, I wouldn’t expect a factual change in the ECB’s monetary policy before well into 2018, which should ease over the median term upward pressures on the euro and downward pressures on the dollar.

Etienne "Hans" Parisis is a bank economist who has advised global billionaires and governments on the financial markets and international investments.

© 2023 Newsmax Finance. All rights reserved.

The dismissal of Comey could be sighted as evidence of somewhat erratic behavior on the part of Trump. Markets and investors don't like the suggestion of instability as it adds to uncertainty and volatility.
trump, comey, firing, investors, erratic, investors, markets
Thursday, 11 May 2017 01:32 PM
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