We will get the first revision of U.S. Q1 GDP, which won’t be good. For long-term investors I’d like to say, and notwithstanding it’s always better getting a good number, the GDP numbers in the following quarters are what counts for getting an acceptable GDP for the year and as has been the case last year and in 2011.

That said, and probably much more important, on Thursday we got confirmation the U.S. job market remains on sound footing with the 4-week average unemployment insurance claims coming in at 271,500, which is still about its lowest level since April 2000.

In this context, next Friday’s job situation numbers will probably be good.

Besides all that, it could be interesting to take notice of what the Institute of International Finance (IIF), which is a globally leading association of commercial and investment banks, insurance companies, etc. stated in its just released analysis of capital flows to emerging markets: “… liftoff (Fed fund rates) later this year and 4 hikes of 25 basis points each over the course of 2016 … it is important to highlight the high degree of uncertainty surrounding market reactions to actual Fed hiking of policy rates … the Fed may raise policy rates by more than expected, perhaps in response to tightening conditions in labor markets (!) even in the face of moderate growth due to a weakening on the supply side of the U.S. economy.”

In context of the risks the IIF describes, for long-term investors who consider e.g. investing in Emerging Markets (EM) it might be good to pay attention: “… The outlook for 2015 EM capital inflows has deteriorated since our January report. We now forecast private non-resident inflows (into EM) to decline from $1,048 billion in 2014 to $981 billion this year, which would be the weakest outcome since the global financial crisis. Moreover, inflows are projected to slide to 3.5% of EM GDP, the lowest level since 2002 … We stress downside risks to our capital flows outlook (to EM) related to

(1) Continued stagnation in global growth and

(2) More aggressive Fed rate increases that could be prompted by further U.S. labor market tightening.”

In simple words, as a long-term investor, I’d prefer to stay on the side-line before investing in Emerging Markets until:

• “Net capital flows” of EM turn positive again, which shouldn’t be expected before 2017;
• The Fed’s policy path to normalization becomes clearer.

To put all this against the "real" background of global trade and industrial production, the latest “World Trade Monitor” of the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) informs:

• World trade volume was down 1.5 percent in Q1 of 2015, after having risen 1.2 percent in Q4 of 2014;
• World industrial production rose by 0.3 percent in Q1 of 2015, after haven risen 1.0 percent in Q4 of 2014.

In clear terms all this means world trade is in a slump, which isn’t good for anybody, but surely will negatively affect emerging markets the most.

Finally, and because the potential a Greek default or Grexit represents a serious risk to markets, on Thursday, Mrs. Lagarde, managing director of the IMF acknowledged that Greece could leave the euro and it was very unlikely a comprehensive solution could be reached between Greece and its creditors in the next few days.

Adding to that, an unnamed eurozone official told Reuters: “To get a disbursement (of the outstanding cash from the current bailout deal) by the end of June there would have to be some kind of an agreement by the end of next week … Basically if there is no agreement by the end of next week, it is impossible to have a disbursement by the end of June. The money is lost…”

As a long-term investor, always try not to forget what the Danish philosopher Søren Kierkegaard said (about a century ago): “There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.”