We got two interesting comments Friday from John Williams, President of the San Francisco Fed and known as a centrist voting member this year at the FOMC and Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed and known as a mild hawk and voting member at
the FOMC in 2016, both said the Federal Reserve "could" start raising rates as soon as June under condition economic data strengthen, as they both expect, during the second quarter.
For investors it could be good taking notice the next FOMC meeting is scheduled within a month and a half on June 16th-17th and will come together with updated Economic Projections and a press conference by Fed Chair Yellen.
Mrs. Mester told reporters in Philadelphia all scheduled Fed policy meetings, including the next one in June, are “on the table,” while Williams from his side said in Orange, California: “I agree with the way my colleague Loretta Mester put it all meetings are “on the table,” adding the U.S. central bank should put some “space” between the start of policy normalization and the decision to allow the Fed's giant balance sheet to shrink.
Interesting comments, which came only two days after the FOMC statement that was released on Wednesday and only one day after initial jobless claims number fell to 262,000, which is its lowest level
since the year 2000.
For this week, it’s clear the numbers of the employment situation we’ll get on Friday will be the most important data of the week, which could move/push markets in any direction.
If we see a bounce back of the employment payrolls from the disappointing 126,000 we got for March, which by the way drove the U.S. 10-year yield below 2 percent where it stayed for the
most of April into the higher 200,000 range that alone could be enough to stoke June Fed rate hike fears, which should cause a rise in volatility.
We aren’t there yet, but as we’ve seen over the past four Fed hiking cycles, market rates had started to rise between 3 and 4 months before the actual Fed rate hike occurred, which in today’s context could promise us a volatile summer if, of course, history repeats itself.
Anyway, investors could do well remember that Fed rate cycles can “hurt” investors.
It was in June 2006 when the Fed raised for the last time the fed funds rate with 0.25 percent and then in September 2007 it started lowering rates to
where we are today.
In context of all the above, today we also probably get the quarterly Fed’s Senior Loan Officers' survey, which is an important indicator that tells us if banks are willing to lend and at what price, and if borrowers are willing to borrow at their prices, which is obviously not the same thing.
Increased lending activity implies increased velocity of money in circulation and if that’s the case, which hasn’t been the case since the start of
the 2008-2009 recession, the need for Fed to start tightening will be on the rise.
Anyway, and notwithstanding the bad Q1 growth numbers, the “momentum” of the economy still seems to indicate rising growth, rising inflation and rising employment.
Watch out for how in the U.S., but also in most of other important places, rates behave (volatility) and in what direction they move because their behavior as well as
their direction will tell you most of the story.
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