During the last 48 hours, we have seen really interesting events taking place on the financial, albeit in the details, as on the UK political front.

In the UK, we got a totally unexpected (polls predicted a very tight race with no clear winner so that coalition talks would have been necessary) absolute majority win of the Conservative Party and a historical collapse of the Labor Party.

What is absolutely sure for now is that in the UK nobody will trust the polls’ forecasts on Britain’s “referendum” in 2017 that will decide if the UK will yes-or-no stay in the European Union (EU), as Prime Minister David Cameron promised to do in his successful election campaign.

Being a member of the EU, which has 28 member states and which are all party to the EU founding treaties of the European Union and thereby subject to the privileges and obligations of membership, is not the same as being member of the Eurozone (EZ), which is a monetary union of 19 out of 28 European Union (EU) member states, which have adopted the euro as their common currency and sole legal tender.

To investors, this UK referendum about to stay-or-not “in” the European Union will be important as the final outcome, albeit still some 2 years away, probably will generate an environment of uncertainty as well for the British pound as how foreign investors consider the UK as a stable location to invest in.

The relief rally we see for the moment in the British pound will, at least in my opinion, be short lived as markets won’t wait that long for pricing in the EU referendum risk.

Besides that, we had on Wednesday at an Institute for New Economic Thinking event at the IMF headquarters, Fed Chair Janet Yellen and IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde who discussed during a Q&A session on the future of monetary policy in a post-crisis world.

Mrs. Yellen made a few remarks on which, I my opinion at least, markets overreacted when she said: “… I would highlight that equity market valuations at this point generally are quite high … interest rates, obviously not only short but long-term interest rates are at very low levels … We need to be attentive and are to the possibility that when the Fed decides it's time to begin raising rates, these term premiums could move up … overall, though, I think my assessment at this point would be that risks to financial stability are moderated, not -- not elevated…”

There is no doubt the longer term yields on U.S. 10-year treasuries as well as in German 10-year bonds, which can be referred to as the real benchmarks of the global markets, will tell us if we are heading for trouble.

We had already a small taste of what’s probably in the pipeline over the near to median future when on Thursday we saw the German Bund futures collapsed to their levels of December of last year.

With all what’s going on, it’s understandable many investors get seriously confused.

Please don’t get me wrong, but I’m starting to get somewhat worried when I compare the charts of the present German Bund selloff with the Japanese Government bond selloff in 2003, whose paths perfectly overlay each other, and if confirmed, which is the “conditio sine qua non” or the indispensable action, we could see non-negligible higher yields in the German bunds, which are together with the 10-year U.S. Treasuries (in normal times of course), the most important trendsetters in the global bond markets.

Believe me, markets won’t like these kind of upwards volatile yield moves, which will cause liquidity to dry up quickly.

In this context, Fed Chair Janet Yellen also warned this week of a potential “sharp jump in long term rates” when the Fed lift-off comes, using the Taper Tantrum of 2013 as example.

Finally, former Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said it in an interview on Thursday: “A financial crisis will happen again, but not like 2008, and banks won’t be bailed out.”

On the bailout question I’m not so sure, but for the rest: “Yes, we have been warned in time.”