Tags: Trade | data | GDP | contraction

Trade Data Lead Economists to Forecast GDP Contraction in Q1 Revision

By    |   Wednesday, 07 May 2014 10:30 AM EDT

Tuesday's news that the U.S. trade deficit shrank less than expected in March led many economists to forecast that GDP growth will be revised to negative for the first quarter.

Last month the government estimated that the economy grew a paltry 0.1 percent in the first quarter. A contraction would be the first in three years, The Wall Street Journal reports.

The trade gap narrowed 3.6 percent in March to $40.38 billion. But the Commerce Department baked in a larger drop for its initial estimate of first-quarter growth.

Editor's Note:
These 38 Dates Are Key to Bagging $313,038


As for economists' forecasts, JPMorgan Chase analysts now predict GDP contracted 0.8 percent in the first quarter. Macroeconomic Advisers projected a dip of 0.6 percent, Barclays Capital a 0.2 percent decline and BNP Paribas a 0.1 percent slide, according to The Journal.

"Exports were weak at the start of the quarter and simply didn't recover enough by the end of the quarter," Paul Ashworth, an economist at Capital Economics, tells the paper. Exports climbed 2.1 percent in March.

"It's not very good for the first quarter [GDP estimate], but it does imply, as does a load of other data, that the second quarter's going to be much, much better," Ashworth notes.

Many analysts anticipate the economy will rebound to at least 3 percent growth in the second quarter. And some expect that pace to last through year-end.

Some experts actually viewed the trade report as positive for the economy. "Exports rebounded after a few weaker months, and that's good to see," Paul Edelstein, director of financial economics at IHS Global Insight, tells Bloomberg.

"Imports were also up, and that's a good sign because it suggests that business and consumer spending are back on track. In general, this is a pretty good report." Imports climbed 1.1 percent in March.

Editor's Note: These 38 Dates Are Key to Bagging $313,038

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Economy
Tuesday's news that the U.S. trade deficit shrank less than expected in March led many economists to forecast that GDP growth will be revised to negative for the first quarter.
Trade, data, GDP, contraction
317
2014-30-07
Wednesday, 07 May 2014 10:30 AM
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