Tags: Rosenberg | inflation | deflation | expect

Gluskin Sheff's Rosenberg Worried About Inflation

By    |   Friday, 10 January 2014 07:16 AM

For much of the period since the 2008-09 financial crisis, David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff, has been on the lookout for deflation.

But now he's worried that inflation may break out. In a commentary obtained by CNBC, Rosenberg cites the argument of Marketfield Asset Management mutual fund manager Michael Aronstein that the Federal Reserve and other central banks are waiting too long to end their easing programs.

"As for consumer inflation, it may not be that far behind," Rosenberg writes. "No doubt there is widespread consensus that 2014 will bring on higher equity prices, sustained economic expansion, more market-friendly Fed policy AND benign inflation."

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38 Trades That Could Turn $1,000 Into $49,000

He states bond bears are right to expect modest increases in yields this year, and stock bulls are right to expect muted gains this year.

"But the consensus on inflation is the one widely accepted view that I am concerned with," Rosenberg writes. He recalls that the Fed was worried about deflation in 2003 and then ended up having to reverse its easing in 2004.

"I would say to expect the unexpected for 2014," he notes.

Inflation expectations, as measured by the premium of the 10-year Treasury yield relative to the 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPs) yield, have jumped to an eight-month high of 2.28 percentage points, the Financial Times reports.

"When you have a growing economy, eventually inflation picks up," Orhan Imer, manager of the Columbia Inflation Protected Securities Fund, tells the paper.

Editor’s Note: 38 Trades That Could Turn $1,000 Into $49,000

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Economy
For much of the period since the 2008-09 financial crisis, David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff, has been on the lookout for deflation.
Rosenberg,inflation,deflation,expect
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2014-16-10
Friday, 10 January 2014 07:16 AM
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