Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, believes the job gains reported by the U.S. government may actually be a mirage.
Nonfarm payrolls rose 211,000 last month, the U.S. Labor Department said on Friday. September and October data was revised to show 35,000 more jobs than previously reported.
The unemployment rate held at a 7-1/2-year low of 5.0 percent, as people returned to the labor force in a sign of confidence in the jobs market. The jobless rate is in a range many Fed officials see as consistent with full employment and has dropped seven-tenths of a percentage point this year.
Reports have showed tepid consumer spending in October and a slowdown in services industry growth in November. Manufacturing contracted in November for the first time in three years, according to one business survey.
“We lost manufacturing jobs,” he told Yahoo Finance
. “Manufacturing is in a recession here in the United States,” he said, offering as evidence this week’s manufacturing and service sector ISM numbers as particularly weak.
“Schiff also notes the shift in jobs being taken has moved from full-time employment to part-time shift work. Schiff points out a jump in part time workers, which saw the biggest rise since September 2012, increasing by 319,000 to 6.1 million in November. He believes this rise is the result of workers who couldn’t find full-time work taking part time jobs,” Yahoo Finance reported.
And with each monthly unemployment rate release comes reminders that the government’s “official” number is just plain wrong, false and a work of fiction.
As The Huffington Post
's Mark Blessington explained the issue in his “The Truth About Unemployment” blog.
“Have you ever wondered why publicized unemployment is so low yet so many people don't have jobs? The U.S. Department of Labor announced that unemployment in October was 5 percent. The details in the same report, however, show that 37 percent of our working age population did not have a job in October,” he wrote.
“The 5 percent and 37 percent have the same numerator but different denominators. The 37 percent denominator is ‘civilian non-institutional population age 16 and older.’ In other words, if you are 16 or over and not an inmate of an institution (for example, penal and mental facilities, homes for the aged), and not on active duty in the Armed Forces, then you qualify as a potential worker and are included in the denominator. On the other hand, the 5 percent only reflects people who ‘made specific efforts to find employment.’ You must do things like apply for a job to be included in the denominator. If you don't actively and frequently try to get a job, then you are officially excluded from the labor market,” he wrote.
Meanwhile, Schiff believes gold is poised to rally because of the belief that if the Fed lifts rates it will be done so gradually.
A strong U.S. dollar and spending cuts by energy companies have been headwinds to the economy. A separate report from the U.S. Commerce Department on Friday showed the international trade deficit widened in October as exports hit a three-year low.
Though wage increases slowed last month, economists say that was mostly payback for October's outsized gains, which were driven by a calendar quirk. Anecdotal evidence, as well as data on labor-related costs, suggest that tightening job market conditions are starting to put upward pressure on wages.
"Payroll gains were despite continued weakness in manufacturing and energy sectors, suggesting little spillover into the rest of the economy," Samuel Coffin, an economist at UBS in Stamford, Connecticut, told Reuters
© 2023 Newsmax Finance. All rights reserved.