Two months into the gravest energy shock since the 1970s, the global economy, including that of the U.S., is still standing.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has knocked roughly 13 million barrels of oil a day out of global supply, sending the price of Brent crude — the global benchmark — up more than 50%, The Wall Street Journal reports.

The strain is visible across the world: blackouts in Pakistan, a four-day workweek in the Philippines, and fuel rationing in Slovenia and Bangladesh.

The longer the disruption lasts, the greater the risk that the global economy tips into recession.

And yet — economies are soldiering on. Stock markets are touching highs. Central banks in the U.S., Europe and Japan are holding rates steady rather than rushing into emergency action. That resilience marks a sharp contrast with earlier energy crises, when similar shocks quickly triggered downturns.

The explanation lies in a combination of structural changes and policy responses that have made the global economy more durable.

Governments entered the crisis with substantial oil reserves.

Japan and South Korea hold roughly 200 days of oil supply, Europe about 130 days, and China around 100 days, according to estimates cited in the article.

The United States is less directly comparable because it is now a net petroleum exporter, giving it flexibility that import-dependent economies lack, alongside its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

At the same time, the world has become far more energy efficient.

According to World Bank data, economies are able to generate more activity from each unit of energy consumed. Since 2000, the energy required to produce one inflation-adjusted dollar of GDP has fallen by about one-third in the U.S. and Europe and by roughly 40% in China.

That shift means higher energy prices still hurt, but they do less immediate damage to overall output than they once did.

Policy has also played a critical role. Governments have moved to shield households and businesses from the worst effects of rising energy costs through subsidies, price controls, tax relief and other measures.

That support has helped prevent a sharp drop in consumer spending and business activity. It has also given central banks more room to pause and assess rather than tightening policy aggressively, as they did during the inflation surge of 2022.

“The starting point is more benign,” said Mansoor Mohi-uddin, chief macro strategist at the Bank of Singapore.

Another offset is coming from an unlikely source: the artificial-intelligence boom.

Strong demand for chips, electronics and industrial equipment used in data centers has kept global trade moving, particularly in Asia.

Exports from Japan rose 12% in March from a year earlier, while South Korea’s climbed nearly 50% and Taiwan’s surged 68%.

The U.S. export picture is steadier, but still supported by global demand tied to AI infrastructure, with overall exports rising about 16% year over year as of early 2026

“AI is papering over the cracks,” said Stefan Angrick of Moody’s Analytics.

That resilience is reflected in global growth projections. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said improved efficiency is helping “cushion the shock.” The IMF expects global growth of about 3.1%, following 3.4% in 2025, assuming energy flows eventually resume.

Still, the strength is uneven. Poorer countries without large reserves or exposure to the AI-driven trade boom are already under strain. Energy shortages are forcing factory closures, while high import prices are stretching already fragile government budgets. If the disruption persists, the risks to global growth will intensify.

“You have this succession of shocks,” said Aaditya Mattoo, director of development research at the World Bank.

Countries, especially developing ones, “face this tough trade-off between providing relief today and sustaining growth tomorrow.”