Tags: maneuvering | economic | downturn

Maneuvering the Next Economic Downturn

Maneuvering the Next Economic Downturn
(Tmcnem/Dreamstime)

By    |   Monday, 15 January 2018 02:12 PM EST

From an economic standpoint, there is no shortage of good news right now.

The S&P 500 is a continual upward climb, and new all-time highs are so common that they have become footnotes instead of headlines. The unemployment rate is lower than it has been since before the great recession. There is even good news on the horizon for employee wages, which have continued to stagnate even as the economy recovered.

Truly, this is all excellent news, but, for investors, it can leave them unsure of where to turn for high-value investments. The stock market is already extremely high, a real-estate shortage is driving up prices, and forex traders are grappling with changing interest rates and fluctuating dominance of the dollar.

Some of have turned to already crowded crypto-markets to try and find an advantage. This year, Bitcoin, the preeminent and most popular cryptocurrency, entered the mainstream financial ecosystem. It is far from alone. There are dozens of cryptocurrencies that increased in value by hundreds or even thousands of percent this year. While they bear the name “currency,” they truly behave more like a commodity, but even those markets are becoming crowded, and rumor of a Bitcoin bubble should cause would-be investors to think twice.

While there is unbridled optimism right now, there also seems to be a sense of brooding marinating just beneath the surface. Markets can’t go up forever, and what The Wall Street Journal describes as “the greatest bull market run in the post-War era” will eventually turn bearish. With that in mind, how can investors hedge their bets and protect their investments in an age of abundance? One way is by using forward and futures contracts to invest in future price movements rather than the current bull market.

Using Forward Contracts as a Hedge

Forward contracts give investors an opportunity to re-write the investment market with an eye on the future. In other words, investors can hedge against future volatility or market downturns. These contracts are less common than the closely named futures contracts because they aren’t housed on exchanges, but they offer investors an opportunity to establish some protection against possible future market disruption.

This is particularly useful when dealing with Forex markets. Geopolitics can profoundly impact national currency prices, and, while the global financial system is humming along, the international political arena leaves much to be desired.

For investors looking to move money internationally, a forward contract can be a helpful tool to protect against currency fluctuations caused by any of the geopolitical catastrophes that seem ready to occur at any moment. For investors looking to move money internationally, a forward contract can be a helpful tool to protect against currency fluctuations caused by any of the geopolitical catastrophes that seem ready to occur at any moment.

Using Futures Contracts to Speculate on the Future

Investors don’t have to work with just current market prices. They can use futures contracts to speculate on various assets values in the future. Maybe you think the market will continue to improve or perhaps you’re confident that a downturn is imminent. Either way, futures contracts allow investors to put their money where their mouth is.

Most exchanges offer futures contracts on a variety of assets. Even cryptocurrencies have a futures market through Cboe Group and CME group, each launched Bitcoin futures contracts on their respective exchanges last month. By speculating on the future, investors can operate outside of the current market, possibly earning a substantial return if they are right.

2017 will likely be remembered as a year of unprecedented growth and well-rounded financial exuberance. What happens next is anyone’s guess. However, investors don’t have to wait until it occurs to find out. By using forward and futures contracts to hedge and speculate on the future. By doing so, they may be forging the next path forward for successful investments. In an age of abundance, it’s time to look to the future for the next round of financial success.

Jim Hoffer is founder and managing director at Hoffer Financial Consulting. Follow him on Twitter.

© 2026 Newsmax Finance. All rights reserved.


Economy
The stock market is already extremely high, a real-estate shortage is driving up prices, and forex traders are grappling with changing interest rates and fluctuating dominance of the dollar.
maneuvering, economic, downturn
678
2018-12-15
Monday, 15 January 2018 02:12 PM
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