The International Energy Agency will decide today whether to approve the largest strategic oil release in its history, a proposed 400-million-barrel drawdown aimed at cooling crude prices that have surged during the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, The Wall Street Journal reports.
Energy officials from the IEA’s 32 member nations discussed the plan during an emergency meeting Tuesday. The proposal would move forward if no country objects when governments confer Wednesday, though a single objection could delay the effort.
If approved, the release would more than double the agency’s previous record drawdown. In 2022, after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, IEA countries released 182 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves in an attempt to stabilize markets.
The move is designed to counter severe supply disruptions tied to the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow shipping lane linking the Persian Gulf with global markets. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply normally passes through the strait, but attacks and threats to tankers have slowed shipments dramatically.
Oil prices have surged since Feb. 28, when the U.S. and Israel began strikes on Iran. Crude briefly climbed above $100 a barrel during the conflict before retreating this week to below $84. Diesel and other refined fuels have continued climbing sharply, fueling concerns about inflation and higher transportation costs.
French President Emmanuel Macron scheduled a 10 a.m. ET video conference Wednesday with leaders of the Group of Seven nations to discuss coordinated responses to the energy shock.
The IEA was created in 1974 after the Arab oil embargo to coordinate emergency responses to global oil disruptions. Member countries collectively hold about 1.2 billion barrels in government stockpiles, along with another 600 million barrels in mandatory commercial inventories, according to IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
Historically, coordinated strategic reserve releases have produced mixed results.
A 1991 release during the first Gulf War, coordinated with President George H.W. Bush’s decision to draw down the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve ahead of Operation Desert Storm, proved highly effective. Oil prices fell more than 20% shortly after the move as markets gained confidence that supply disruptions would be contained.
By contrast, the 2022 coordinated release following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had a weaker initial impact. Oil prices rose roughly 20% in the immediate aftermath, as traders interpreted the action as confirmation that the energy crisis was deeper than previously expected. Prices eventually eased later that year as supplies increased and demand softened.
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