The end result of Greece's debt crisis won't be pretty, says Washington Post columnist Catherine Rampell.
Whatever the outcome of Greece's 11th hour negotiations with creditors to restructure its debt, "a default of some kind is inevitable," she writes. "The only question is when and how orderly it will be."
Greece is on the hook for a 1.6 billion-euro ($1.8 billion) payment to the IMF Tuesday. "Even if there is an agreement this week that allows Greece, through yet another loan, to make its June 30 IMF installment, a major restructuring or default has to be in the offing soon,"
Rampell argues.
And why is that?
"As Harvard economist and financial crisis scholar Carmen Reinhart notes, the private and public sectors are already behaving as if a default and exit from the euro are imminent, with actions that could well become self-fulfilling," Rampell explains.
"Greeks are hoarding cash and sending their savings abroad." They aren't exactly rushing to pay their debts or taxes amid anticipation of a government default.
Meanwhile, there's talk that emerging markets, which saw their stocks and currencies tumble in 2013-14 amid the "taper tantrum" that resulted from the Federal Reserve cutting its bond purchases, are vulnerable again.
The thinking goes: "U.S. interest rates rising? Sell emerging markets," writes Wall Street Journal Heard on the Street Columnist Richard Barley.
"Eurozone standoff with Greece? Sell emerging markets. Problem in a couple of emerging-market countries? Really sell emerging markets."
But that represents "outdated thinking," he argues. "The story since the global financial crisis broke out has been one of belated realization that risks in developed markets have been underpriced."
Barley cites U.S. mortgage-backed securities and eurozone government bonds as examples.
Meanwhile, emerging market economies are growing faster as a whole than their developed counterparts. "The bigger puzzle surely is the lackluster growth in developed economies given the sheer scale of stimulus thrown at them since the crisis," Barley states.
When it comes to stocks, the MSCI Emerging Markets index has risen 5.8 percent so far this year, compared to 5.7 percent for the MSCI Developed World index.
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