President Trump’s latest economic pitch boils down to three pillars: make it easier to own a home, shift the tax burden away from workers and onto foreign imports, and rein in Washington’s runaway spending.

Strip away the political noise, and much of the math behind those ideas points in his favor, The Wall Street Journal reports.

Expanding Homeownership

In his State of the Union speech Tuesday, President Trump framed housing as both a middle-class entry point and a wealth-preservation issue — promising to lower costs for buyers without crushing property values for current homeowners.

That balance matters.

The median U.S. home now costs roughly $405,000, up sharply from 2019 levels. At the same time, home equity represents a critical 45% of the typical homeowner’s net worth.

For millions of Americans, their house isn’t just shelter — it’s their primary financial asset.

Critics argue you can’t both lower housing costs and preserve values. But easing mortgage rates may allow Trump to thread that needle.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has fallen to about 6.01%, down from 6.85% a year ago and the lowest since 2022.

According to Zillow, falling rates and rising incomes mean the median-income household can afford a home roughly $30,000 more expensive than last year — restoring purchasing power without forcing sellers to slash prices.

Housing advocates say increased supply would help stabilize affordability without triggering a price collapse.

“This can be a win-win scenario,” said David Dworkin, chief executive at the National Housing Conference. “It’s not a zero-sum game.”

Trump has also targeted institutional investors that buy up single-family homes.

While they own less than 3% of housing stock nationally, their footprint is concentrated in certain metro areas. Restricting that activity could modestly expand for-sale inventory — though economists note it could also tighten rental supply.

The broader point: expanding access to homeownership without destroying household wealth is economically plausible, particularly if mortgage rates continue trending lower.

Replacing Taxes With Tariff Revenue

Trump has long argued that tariffs — once the backbone of federal revenue before 1913 — could shoulder more of the tax burden, reducing reliance on income taxes.

Today, individual income taxes generate more than $2.5 trillion annually, roughly half of federal revenue. Tariff collections this fiscal year were on track to reach about $420 billion before the Supreme Court limited certain emergency authorities.

Critics insist tariffs could never fully replace income taxes.

“This is not within the realm of possibility,” said Kimberly Clausing, a tax-policy professor at UCLA and former Treasury official.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, however, has projected tariff revenue in 2026 could match pre-ruling levels, boosted by newly imposed duties.

Even if tariffs don’t eliminate income taxes outright, shifting a larger share of federal revenue toward trade levies would reduce the direct tax burden on American wages — a core Trump objective.

Targeting Fraud & Waste

Trump also argued the federal budget could move dramatically closer to balance by rooting out fraud and waste. He tapped Vice President JD Vance to spearhead the effort.

“If we’re able to find enough of that fraud, we will actually have a balanced budget overnight. It’ll go very quickly. That’s the kind of money you’re talking about,” Trump said.

The Government Accountability Office estimates annual federal fraud losses between $230 billion and $520 billion.

The current federal deficit stands near $1.8 trillion annually.

Recovering a fraction of fraudulent spending would represent one of the largest deficit-reduction efforts in modern history — without raising taxes.

At a time when voters remain uneasy about housing affordability, high taxes, and chronic deficits, Trump’s proposals center on ownership, income protection, and shrinking the size of government.

Lower mortgage rates are already improving buying power. Tariffs are generating hundreds of billions in revenue. Fraud losses amount to sums large enough to materially affect the deficit.

Much of the underlying economic logic behind Trump’s agenda rests on defensible math — especially on homeownership and shifting the tax burden away from American workers.