Affordability will be a big club for Democrats in the midterm elections.

Voters are angry about high prices for essentials like gasoline, insurance, groceries, housing, and childcare.

What matters is whether wages are rising faster than inflation, and workers are advancing with President Trump.

Since January 2025, wages have outpaced prices by 0.8%.

Over the prior five years, real wages rose only 2.3%  —  less than 0.5% annually.

Republicans’ problem is that prices for items that folks won’t do without are up a lot. Often, politicians can’t solve the underlying issues.

Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz is driving up gas prices.

Climate change looms big.

It’s pushing up homeowners’ insurance in flood and wildfire prone areas.

CPI Inflation Up 27%

The Consumer Price Index is up 27% since just before COVID. But coffee and beef have jumped more than 50%.

Much of our coffee comes from Brazil and Vietnam.

Those countries suffered droughts in 2024 and 2025.

Brazilian farmers are switching from Arabica, which Americans ordinarily drink, to more heat tolerant Robusto, which is better for expresso and instant drinks.

Droughts in the American West have reduced cattle herds by 40% since 1976. Fewer animals can be fattened through grazing, which produces the lean beef Americans prefer.

Nowadays, we eat less beef per person, but with a much larger population, demand outstrips supply.

A progressive corporate attorney recently told me that cattle are so few and beef too expensive, because ranching is over consolidated and monopolized.

We have 700,000 beef growers.

Chicken is up 33% owing to droughts abroad and the war in Ukraine that pushed up feed prices, labor shortages at processing plants and multiple occurrences of avian flu.

Lettuce has soared 38%. California growers are plagued by climate driven floods and drought, diseases and labor shortages.

We can’t blame too few meat cutters and vegetable pickers on climate change.

During the first Trump and Biden administrations, the economy grew 2.5% annually with important contributions from immigrants.

The labor force added 3.7 million native-born Americans but also 5.0 million foreign-born workers.

Since Trump began deporting illegal aliens, the availability of additional foreign-born workers has slowed.

That creates headaches for California fruit and vegetable farmers, meatpackers, home and commercial builders, and childcare and eldercare providers.

President Trump concedes that perhaps his immigration enforcement, which has centered on criminals and others posing threats, may have been too rigorous.

According to a Washington Post/ABC News survey, 58% of Americans, appalled by some of ICE’s tactics, agree.

Yet, ICE is converting a fleet of warehouses into immigration detention facilites that can accommodate 92,000 guests.

Trump Tariffs

Trump has raised the average tariff on imports from 2.6% to 13%.

Those taxes increase new home material costs by $10,000.

Ninety percent of the burden of tariffs falls on U.S. businesses and consumers. Those cost the typical household $1,000 a year.

According to Kalshi, Democrats have a 82% chance of winning the House but only a 49% chance of capturing the Senate.

Currently, Republicans control both chambers of Congress — 220 — that’s 213 in the House (with 2 vacancies) and 53–47 in the Senate.

Unfortunately, too much of what Democrats propose to address affordability comes down to raising taxes to subsidizing client voters, repackaging progressive hobbyhorses and chasing boogeymen.

Almost everywhere Democrats who hold power at the state level want new taxes  —  that fuels inflation, too.

Obama-Biden Administration economist Jared Bernstein says restoring Biden-era food support and childcare subsidies would help.

Both would lower out-of-pocket costs for low-income families but stimulate demand without solving underlying supply constraints.

Ultimately, those would raise prices for middle-class families.

Democrats see monopolists and abusive pricing practices in the least likely places.

New York Mayor Mamdani is moving ahead with rent controls and Bernstein advocates price caps for hospital and doctor fees.

Medicare already does that for seniors, but many doctors won’t take Medicare patients who weren’t with them before turning 65.

According to Senator Warren, grocers are another bunch of conspirators.

Within walking distance of my home, I have grocery chains Harris Teeter, Safeway, Trader Joe’s and Balducci’s. Within a short drive, add Target, Walmart, Giant and Whole Foods.

Hard to find a monopoly with so many choices.

Democrats talking about affordability remind me of Etruscans explaining lightening. They would attribute it to the Gods speaking, whereas Romans looked for more tangible, physical phenomenon.

Democrats better hope they don’t pull off an upset to control the Senate next year, because then in 2028, they will have to explain why they didn’t solve the affordability crisis.

That would create a pathway for Vice President J.D. Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio to disassociate to run for president in 2028, potentially winning the White House and, hopefully, winning back the House.

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Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.