While headlines focus on slowing growth and rising risks, financial insiders warn the real danger lies deep beneath the surface. According to billionaire investor Ray Dalio, the global economy is entering a period of profound change that could reshape money, markets, and power itself. His warning is not about a typical slowdown or even a standard recession. It is about the structure supporting the system giving way.

The drumbeat of warnings has only grown louder as United States debt surpassed $38 trillion. Right now, interest payments are consuming more federal spending than ever before in modern history. As borrowing expands faster than growth, the economy is on the verge of a "debt spiral."  And once an economy slips into that spiral, escaping it becomes extremely difficult without severe consequences.

Analysts see an economic order built over decades breaking down. Dalio went so far as to call it the "beginning of the end" of the monetary system as we know it.¹ Governments around the world are facing a simple but brutal dilemma. Do you print money (and destroy its value) or do you let a debt crisis happen?

The 'Big Cycle' Comes Into Focus

Dalio’s warning is grounded in long term historical study rather than short term market moves. Calling it the Big Cycle, Dalio identified a repeating six stage cycle that lasts roughly eighty years and governs the rise and decline of empires and currencies.

By his definition, the United States is firmly in Stage five. This phase is marked by rising debt burdens, increasing money creation, deep political polarization, erosion of institutional trust, and growing civil unrest. Once a country reaches this stage, the margin for error narrows quickly.

The next phase, Stage six, is historically the most painful. It often brings internal conflict, civil war, or revolution. Today’s economy is increasingly being compared to the 1930s, before the upheaval of the Great Depression and World War II. That is why Dalio believes we may be facing a profound shift that rewrites the rules, not a typical cyclical recession that simply resets within them.

A Fragile Economy Beneath the Surface

Recent economic data reinforces the sense that we are on a precipice. United States GDP growth in 2025 came in around 1.9 percent. Job creation totaled roughly 584,000, the weakest non-recessionary growth in over twenty years. Unemployment hovered near 4.4 percent, with forecasts for 2026 rising toward 4.5 percent.²

While wage growth modestly exceeded inflation, economists describe conditions as fragile and uneven. These numbers do not suggest collapse on their own. But they do signal an economy with limited resilience at a time when debt, rates, and geopolitical risks are rising simultaneously.

Trade Friction and a Shifting World Order

Trade policy has become another source of strain. Tariffs and enforcement actions, when applied unpredictably, can disrupt production systems and supply chains, pushing nations to reduce reliance on any single market.

The broader risk is fragmentation. As countries hedge against sanctions risk and trade uncertainty, new alliances form and capital shifts. The global economy is gradually being reordered in ways that create growth around the United States rather than within it.

China and the Acceleration of Global Realignment

Adding pressure to this transition is the steady rise of China as a competing economic and geopolitical power. History shows that periods of global disruption often coincide with an established power being challenged by a rising one. Trade systems, capital flows, and political relationships are strained as the conflict unfolds.

China has spent years building parallel financial infrastructure, expanding trade ties across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, and reducing reliance on Western controlled systems. Even without direct conflict, these shifts make the global system less coordinated and more unpredictable.

The Dollar and a Multipolar Future

Evidence of a broader shift toward a multipolar monetary system can be seen with the dollar itself. Despite still accounting for roughly 89% of foreign exchange transactions, the dollar’s share of global reserves has fallen from 65.3 % in 2016 to about 59.3 % in late 2024. ³

Fiat currencies across the United Kingdom, Europe, China, and Japan all face similar debt challenges. Trust, not yield, is becoming the defining variable. As a result, capital is moving away from paper claims and toward assets without counterparty risk, like physical gold.

This environment helps explain gold’s resurgence. In 2026, gold reached a record $5,100 per ounce. Central banks purchased more than 1,100 tons in 2025. BRICS nations now collectively hold over 6,000 tonnes in reserves.⁴

Gold’s appeal is straightforward. It cannot be printed. It carries no counterparty risk. It functions as monetary insurance rather than an income asset. Throughout history, when faith in currency failed, individuals and empires turned to gold.

A Decision Point With Long Shadows

The most sobering aspect of this moment is its generational impact. Grandchildren and great-grandchildren not yet born will be paying off today’s debt in devalued dollars.

Whether the United States stabilizes or enters a historic reset remains uncertain. What is becoming clear is that the world is changing, and the monetary system is changing with it. Ray Dalio has warned that “we’re heading into very, very dark times.” ⁵ Preparation matters, and holding physical precious metals in a Gold IRA, such as those available from American Hartford Gold, offers a practical way to safeguard long term financial security.

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Machi Block is a Senior Director at American Hartford Gold and a trusted precious metals specialist. He helps Americans protect their savings with physical precious metals and shares perspectives on topics such as inflation, market volatility, and economic uncertainty.

Notes

1. https://www.mexc.co/en-PH/news/539532

2. https://fortune.com/2026/02/11/how-many-jobs-did-us-economy-trump-create-2025-weakest-since-pandemic/

3. https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/12042948503562

4. https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/01-23-2026-brics-1000-35475353850993

5. https://fortune.com/2025/09/22/ray-dalio-warns-very-dark-times-economy-america-china-great-power-conflict-inequality/