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Bill Gross: Fed on Path to Triggering Recession

By    |   Thursday, 21 September 2017 02:03 PM

Economic guru Bill Gross warned savvy investors that the Federal Reserve just might spark another recession if the central bank is allowed to carry out its long-term strategy.

Gross explained to CNBC that whether or not the Fed leads the U.S. economy into recession depends on whether it sticks to its fed funds forecast.

"If they followed their plan … which basically projects over the next two years for fed funds to reach 2.8 [percent] or even 3 percent, a 170 basis point increase, then yes a recession is possible," the Janus Henderson Investors portfolio manager told CNBC.

To be sure, the Fed reduced its long-run target for the fed funds rate to 2.8 percent.

Gross warned the Fed should be "careful" because it is a highly-levered economy.

Gross warned about the potential danger of looming interest rate increases in his July newsletter, noting that raising interest rates will increase the cost of short-term debt that corporations and individuals hold, CNBC explained.

"They just have to be very careful because it's a highly levered U.S. economy. It's a highly levered global economy and currencies and the dollar and other related assets like gold will move substantially if the Fed overstates its case," Gross said.

Gross isn't alone in his gloomy view of the economy's future.

Newsmax Finance Insider John Mauldin recently spotlighted 15 Events That Could Trigger Next Recession, Killing Bull Market.

"The current bull market is the second longest and has the third-highest gain. It will be the longest stock bull market of the modern era if it can last another two years or so," he said.

"I remember the late ’90s very well. I called the top about three years early, never dreaming we could see a year like 1999. That will always be my mania benchmark—and today we are not even remotely near it. I don’t remember thinking much about bonds back then. No one else was, either," he said.

"But buying them would have turned out much better than buying stocks in 1997–99."

(Newsmax wires services contributed to this report).

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Economy
Economic guru Bill Gross warned savvy investors that the Federal Reserve just might spark another recession if the central bank is allowed to carry out its long-term strategy.
bill, gross, fed, recession, investors
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2017-03-21
Thursday, 21 September 2017 02:03 PM
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