One thing I have concluded from my recent and past trading is that long-term cycles work when trading the stock market.
One reason I was able to turn bullish near the 2009 low in equities and stay bullish was because of where we were in the cycle.
In studying past market cycles, I found that there are 15-year to 20-year periods where equities do nothing or are stuck in long-term trading ranges. However, within these long-term trading ranges, there are large moves higher and lower.
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Therefore, rather that increased volatility we will probably see decreased volatility. And rather the Dow Jones Industrial Average swinging to 13,000 then to 7,000, we will probably see a much tighter range in the coming years, most likely in the 10,000 to 15,000 range.
Therefore, if you looking for large bull markets or some sort of crash, U.S. equities are probably not the place you are going to find such market action in. History tells us so.
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