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Democrats Desperately Need Recession to Win 2020

Democrats Desperately Need Recession to Win 2020
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Thursday, 09 May 2019 12:05 PM Current | Bio | Archive

Democrats recently suffered one of their worst weeks ever. The week was bookended by economic reports that were a crushing blow to the chances of a recession before the 2020 election.

Just so we all understand what the rules are, the definition of "recession" as described by Merriam-Webster is two consecutive quarters of negative growth of gross domestic product (GDP).

The reason the Democrats are pulling for a recession is they believe that if we have a recession before the presidential election, they will have the upper hand and a new blue tide will sweep them to victory in the House, Senate, and the White House. They believe that Americans will be disappointed in the economy and their personal prospects. Democrats hope that such disappointed Americans will vote for the yet unknown Democratic candidate instead of President Donald Trump.

Before I dig into the numbers, let me make one other point. This is May, and the election will be held in November 2020. How many more quarterly GDP reports will be released between now and the election? Six.

We need two consecutive quarters of negative growth in GDP to have an official recession.

The government said on Friday, April 26, that gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2019 was 3.2%. The bottom will have to fall out of the economy (and do so quickly) for Democrats to have any shot at a recession.

I don't know of any real economists predicting negative GDP by the end of 2019.

If by the end of summer the GDP is still above 3%, the chances of recession will fall dramatically. 

If I’m right on GDP holding up, then look for the Democrats to move away from talk of recession and switch to “economic slowdown.” If the recession hasn't started by January 2020, then the economy, jobs, and wages will be off the table. There is no issue that (no pun intended) will trump these powerful forces.

On Friday May 3, the government said the unemployment rate was at its lowest level in 50 years at 3.6%. Also, the number of new jobs created was 263,000, lifting the total number of new jobs created in the last 12 months to more than 4.1 million. I believe job openings will keep jobless claims restrained.

The backstory on the employment data is the average hourly wages earned by Americans was $23.31 an hour, an all-time high. Here is another example of how the Democratic candidates for president are speaking out of both sides of their mouth. One says that the strong recovery and the highest wages are because of President Barack Obama. However, others are saying middle-class Americans have gotten nothing from the Trump tax cut. It’s one or the other, but not both. Either wages are setting new highs, or they are not Just look at how much you bring home as an indicator.

We have to ask the Democrats: "If unemployment is at 50-year lows, minorities have the highest employment rates perhaps ever, wages are at all-time high, how can you do better?" 

It is reported there are 6.7 million vacant jobs currently, with a significant number of them in manufacturing. Remember when President Obama told us those manufacturing jobs are never coming back? A high number of unfilled jobs will keep the unemployment rate low and the number of new jobs high.

With all of this great information on jobs and the economy, what will the platform be for the Democratic Party in 2020? Will they say that they can do better on job creation, on GDP, on employment, and on wages? Their only hope is a recession. I don’t think that will happen.

Some of the candidates want to take back the tax cuts, increase your taxes and corporate tax rates. They want bigger government and more government control over our lives.

I think the American voter will reject that in a big way. Americans like the feel of a fat wallet in their pocket.

Dan Perkins is an author of both thrillers and children’s books. He appears on over 1,100 radio stations. Mr. Perkins appears regularly on international TV talk shows, he is current events commentator for seven blogs, and a philanthropist with his foundation for American veterans, Songs and Stories for Soldiers, Inc. More information about him, his writings, and other works are available on his website, DanPerkins.guru. To read more of his reports — Click Here Now.

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Democrats recently suffered one of their worst weeks ever. The week was bookended by economic reports that were a crushing blow to the chances of a recession before the 2020 election.
democrats, desperately, need, recession
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2019-05-09
Thursday, 09 May 2019 12:05 PM
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