On a day when stock prices, in general, moved sharply higher,
Ford Motor Co. (F) got hit hard on Dec. 18 after the company announced that it expects its pre-tax profit, excluding special items, to decline to $7 billion to $8 billion for the year ending Dec. 31, 2014, from approximately $8.5 billion during the current year — an estimated drop of 5.9 percent to 11.8 percent.
That announcement came as a big surprise to many investors and stock-market speculators, with Wall Street analysts expecting at that time that Ford would earn a pretax profit of approximately $9.5 billion and a net income of $1.83 per diluted share for the year ending Dec. 31, 2014.
While some stock-market participants are now concerned that Ford’s stock might fall further, I see the 8.4 percent drop in the company’s stock during the past eight trading sessions as a welcomed opportunity for investors to establish or add to their positions in Ford at a favorable price. That‘s because my research suggests that the coming year will be a very positive transitioning year for Ford in a way similar to the period from 2005-2008 when the company implemented numerous restructuring initiatives and invested heavily in developing new vehicles.
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Largely because of those investments and restructuring activities, Ford was able to increase its share of the global auto market over the past five years and to grow its revenues by approximately 25 percent since the beginning of 2010.
Even more impressive, the company grew its pre-tax profit by approximately 181 percent from 2010 to 2012, and it’s estimating that its profits rose by approximately 10.1 percent during 2013, as compared to the prior year.
During that same period, Ford doubled its pre-tax earnings per diluted share, to $2.02 for the year ended Dec. 31, 2012, from $1.01 for the year ended Dec. 31, 2009.
During the nine months ended Sept. 30, 2013, the company’s operating performance improved further, with its revenues rising by 12.3 percent and its cash flows from operating activities rising by 7.7 percent, as compared to the same period a year ago.
In regard to the company’s financial condition, Ford is much more liquid than its competitors, with its current assets, excluding inventories, covering its current liabilities by a ratio of 2.1-to-1 as of the company’s latest quarter ended Sept. 30, 2013. In comparison, General Motors’ current assets, excluding inventories, covered its current liabilities by a margin of only 1.05 as of that same date.
And, in spite of the fact that Ford did not accept any financial bailout funds from the U.S. government — like General Motors and Chrysler did during 2008 — the company improved its financial condition considerably over the past few years.
For example, Ford reduced the underfunded status of its global pension plans by almost 50 percent during the first nine months of this year, as compared to the year ended Dec. 31, 2012. As a result of those cuts, the company will need substantially less cash over the next three years to fund its global pension plans.
Ford also completed a voluntary lump sum payment plan to employees who decided to accept the company’s early retirement offering that began during 2012. Specifically, Ford made payments to approximately 35,000 employees, representing 37 percent of its eligible workforce, settling $4.2 billion in obligations or about 25 percent of the company’ related liability.
Looking ahead, Ford plans to embark on its most aggressive product launch schedule in the company’s history by introducing 23 all-new or significantly-refreshed vehicles around the world — more than double the number of vehicles that the company launched during the current year.
Although I expect those new offerings to enable Ford to increase its revenues and earnings substantially during 2015, the company’s executives said on Dec. 18 that they expect the investments required for those new vehicles to lead to a decline in the company’s profits during the year ahead. Specifically, Ford said that it expects the company’s pretax profit to fall to $7 billion to $8 billion during 2015, from an estimated profit of $8.5 billion for the year ending Dec. 31, 2013.
With my research indicating that the pace of economic growth in most regions of the world will increase during the coming year, and that Ford is being conservative in its 2014 earnings projections, I encourage investors and speculators alike to monitor the company’s stock very closely the over the next couple of weeks.
With the company doubling its quarterly dividend during 2013 to 10 cents per share, and both Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s raising the company’s debt ratings to investment grade, the longer-term outlook for Ford continues to be very positive.
For those reasons, there’s a good chance that I’ll advise subscribers to my investment newsletter to buy Ford’s stock if it were to continue to hold above a key price-support level of around $15.
In regard to my longer-term outlook, my research indicates that the company’s stock will almost double by the end of 2015, to approximately $30 per share, from its close of $15.30 on Dec. 27.
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David N. Frazier has an extensive background in the investment securities industry and has invested in the financial markets for more than 25 years.
In addition to working as a business analyst, merchant banking analyst and equity research analyst, he’s held positions in sales and marketing at institutional investment firms, including William O’Neil & Co., TDAmeritrade, and Merrill Lynch.
David now serves as the President and Chief Market Strategist of Frazier & Mayer Research, LLC (dba www.TheMarketMonk.com), an independent investment research firm that provides research and analytical services to hedge funds, investment advisory firms, and other investment newsletters.
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