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Will Stock Market Bring More Tricks or Treats Next Week?

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Friday, 26 October 2018 04:48 PM Current | Bio | Archive

As we trade the end of October and Halloween for the start of November next week, we have another barn burner one ahead for September quarter earnings as more than 1,000 companies will report their results and update their outlooks.

We also have a full plate of economic data coming at us, some of which will influence the second edition of the September quarter’s GDP reading while others will start to put some shape around the GDP reading for the current quarter.

To set the table for that data following the initial September quarter GDP print of 3.5%, the New York Fed’s Nowcast model is looking for 2.4% while The Wall Street Journal’s Economic Forecast Survey of more than 60 economists is calling for 2.9%.

Thus far we have yet to see any forecast from the Atlanta Fed’s Nowcast model for the December quarter, however, odds are it will once again start out overly bullish and find its way closer to the economic reality of the quarter.

We like to kid the Atlanta Fed, but it did start out modeling September quarter GDP of 4.7%. Of course, we would have loved to have seen that, but we’re in the business of letting the economic data talk to us. The fact the Citibank Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for several months, meaning the data is coming in below expectations, was a clue the Atlanta Fed would have to refine its outlook.

So, what do we have on tap from an economic data perspective?

  • Monday will bring the September Personal Income and Spending report, one that will we will be watching closely to see if consumers continued to spend above wage gains.
  • Tuesday has the October Consumer Confidence reading for October, and the recent stock market gyrations could take some wind out of the September confidence gains. As we gear into the holiday shopping season, we’ll be closely watching the Expectations component for signs of any softening. Also, on Tuesday, we have Apple’s latest event at which it is widely expected to unveil its latest iPad and Mac models.
  • The ADP Employment Report for October as well as the 3Q 2018 Employment cost Index reports will be had on Wednesday, and we expect them to receive more than a passing scrutiny given the growing scarcity of workers with needed skillsets and wage gains.
  • Thursday we will get the October auto and truck sales and we’ll be looking to see if those sales continue to resemble what we’ve seen in the housing market of late – fewer unit sales, but ones with higher price tags. Also, in focus that day will be the October ISM Manufacturing Index, where we will be eyeing its order and backlog data as well as employment metrics. Rounding out Thursday, we’ll get the September Construction Spending Report.
  • The first Friday of the new month usually means it’s time for the employment report, and yes, we will indeed be getting the October Employment report one week from today. While we expect many to be focused on the speed of job creation, we’ll be digging into the qualitative factors of the jobs created and who is taking them as well as focusing on the degree of wage gains.

Turning to next week’s earnings calendar, it is simply chock full of reports and once again Thursday will be the day with the heaviest flow – just under 400 companies on that day alone.

Just like this week, among the sea of reports to be had there will be several, including Facebook (FB) and Apple that will capture investor attention given the impact they could have on the market.

As we move through the week, we’ll be collecting data points from these various reports, adding to and updating our thematic investment mosaic along the way.

Enjoy the weekend, stock up on all those tricks and treats and get some rest for the week ahead.

Christopher (Chris) Versace is the Chief Investment Officer at Tematica Research, editor of the newsletter Tematica Investing, co-host of the Cocktail Investing Podcast and is a featured columnist to The Street.com as well as a contributor to Business Insider and Forbes.com.
 

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We also have a full plate of economic data coming at us, some of which will influence the second edition of the September quarter’s GDP reading while others will start to put some shape around the GDP reading for the current quarter.
stock, market, tricks, treats
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2018-48-26
Friday, 26 October 2018 04:48 PM
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