By Howard Schneider
WASHINGTON, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Eight years ago, as the
United States struggled through the aftermath of a deep
recession, the Federal Reserve set an unemployment rate it felt
would be a good benchmark to show the economy was getting back
to normal.
The 6.5% number the Fed set in 2012 was almost double the
unemployment rate the U.S. eventually hit https://br.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN1WJ0C4
during a record-setting economic expansion, leaving many
convinced the Fed had misjudged the willingness of those on the
economic sidelines to get back to work.
This week, the Fed will revive that debate under drastically
different circumstances as it begins to put into practice a
revised approach to monetary policy at its meeting on Sept. 15
and 16. Mistakes about job creation are a thing of the past, the
Fed is promising, with an expansive commitment to "broad-based
and inclusive" employment announced in late August.
What's unclear is just what the Fed plans to do to speed a
return to full employment for the nearly 30 million Americans
collecting some form of unemployment benefit, and when it will
pull the trigger. The issues are consequential to Wall Street
investors, businesses large and small, masses of jobless in
America, and possibly the November presidential election.
This week's meeting won't provide those answers. But there
should be clues from the new economic projections that Fed
officials will issue after their meeting, the last before the
November election, and from the press conference chair Jerome
Powell holds afterward.
The Fed may eventually buy more bonds, offer more detailed
promises to keep credit easy for years to come, or even take
more aggressive steps if the pandemic worsens and conditions
deteriorate.
To veterans of those earlier policy debates about maximum
employment, it can't happen soon enough.
Despite the new employment commitments, lending programs and
low interest rates rolled out in response to the pandemic this
spring, "we are settling in for another long painful recovery
where some people are feeling great because they own lots of
stock and others lost their job," said Dartmouth College
economics professor and former Fed adviser Andrew Levin.
"It is deja vu" with the last U.S. recovery, he said.
New economic projections this week will offer the first,
longer-term glimpse, through 2023, of how Fed officials think
their new approach will work in practice and how fast they think
the job market can recover.
The formal unemployment rate of 8.4% in August is already
below what most Fed officials felt it would be at year's end.
But it also may understate the real economic impact the
coronavirus has had on households.
This week should reveal whether Fed officials think the pace
of improvement will continue, and how that shapes their view of
the recovery.
WORSE THAN THE LAST RECESSION
It took six and a half years for the U.S. to reclaim the 8.7
million payroll jobs lost during the 2007 to 2009 downturn. The
coronavirus recession was deeper and faster, with 22 million
payroll positions lost.
The rebound started strong, but there are concerns it is
slowing and may leave people struggling in a post-pandemic
economy where millions of jobs may have been rendered obsolete.
The Fed's future decisions and deliberations will likely
reflect new views of the labor market, developed during the last
downturn and recovery.
Levin, for example, was among a group of economists who
argued that workers who appeared permanently sidelined might
return to jobs if unemployment fell low enough. The issue may
again be relevant if some industries and occupations, as
expected, are fundamentally changed as a result of the pandemic.
Evidence of such structural changes can take time. Though
Levin proved correct, it took years before sidelined workers'
return showed up in the data. Some feel the Fed's reduction of
economic stimulus and hiking of interest rates in the meantime
slowed the arrival of the day when the recovery reached those
most marginalized -- the people the Fed is now pledging to more
directly account for in its thinking.
U.S. central bankers say they have learned their lesson.
They have revised their approach so that the risk, say, of
rising inflation will no longer be used as a reason to raise
interest rates and slow job creation - until it is clearly
necessary.
In the expansion that lasted until the coronavirus "we did
find full employment," San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly
said in recent comments to reporters. "We were learning to find
it experientially" by letting joblessness drop below what was
considered sustainable without inflation.
That is the Fed's intent for the future. Those on the
outside are hungry for more details.
“What the Fed has told us is they are no longer going to
even pretend to be anticipatory," raising rates to halt
inflation before it starts, said Erik Weisman, chief economist
with MFS Investment Management. "We are going to want a lot more
specificity."
(Reporting by Howard Schneider.
Additional reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Heather Timmons
and Chizu Nomiyama)
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