Tags: BlackBay | Schoenberger | stocks | plunge

BlackBay’s Schoenberger: Stocks Still Set to Plunge 35%

By    |   Monday, 30 April 2012 12:13 PM

Late last year, Todd Schoenberger, managing principal of The BlackBay Group, a money management firm, predicted stocks would plummet 35 percent in 2012.

He’s not backing off that projection, despite the fact that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has rallied 11 percent year-to-date.

"So far I’m wrong,” Schoenberger acknowledges to Yahoo. However, much of stock market’s strength in the first quarter was predicated on expectations that the Federal Reserve would embark on another round of quantitative easing, he says.

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“Fed Chairman [Ben] Bernanke has clearly put that on the back burner. It’s not going to happen anytime soon.”

Investors have grown excited over earnings increases. But of the Standard & Poor’s 500 companies that have reported their first-quarter profits so far, the gains have registered only 3 percent on average, compared to more than 12 percent a year ago, Schoenberger says.

“I’m not excited about this.”

Europe remains a concern too. “I start looking at all the debt bombs in Europe. They’re in recession,” Schoenberger says. Spain reported Monday that its economy shrank for the second quarter in a row during the first three months of the year.

Other experts are wary of stocks too.

“We see a shift out of risk assets,” Matt McCormick, a money manager at Bahl & Gaynor, tells Bloomberg. “Europe is still considerably weak. We’re in a recovery, albeit a tepid one. Expectations have gotten too high.”

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Monday, 30 April 2012 12:13 PM
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