Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Joel Rubin said Friday that the success of U.S. efforts toward Iran will hinge on whether upcoming talks produce a clear framework for negotiations, warning that failure could raise the risk of renewed military conflict.
Speaking on Newsmax TV's "American Agenda," Rubin responded to remarks by former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker, who offered a mixed assessment of recent actions aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear program and regional influence.
Volker said it remains too early to determine how current efforts will pan out.
"We don't know the outcome yet," Volker told Newsmax, adding that results depend on how success is measured.
He noted that if the goal is regime change in Iran, current efforts have "definitely not" succeeded.
However, he argued that there has been measurable progress in slowing Tehran's nuclear activities.
"We did set back the nuclear program again," Volker said, pointing to actions taken last year and this year that he described as significantly delaying Iran's capabilities.
Still, Volker raised concerns about Iran's continued role in regional instability, including threats to shipping and neighboring countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
"If they are able to continue to hold others hostage in the region… I think that's a failure," he said.
Rubin said Volker's assessment reflects the broader "state of play," but stressed that the immediate priority should be securing a concrete diplomatic pathway forward.
"One of the expectations … that I hope for this weekend that we see is an achievement of some clear framework for negotiations going forward," Rubin said.
He emphasized that any such framework should be formalized in writing and agreed upon by the U.S. and Iran to avoid misunderstandings and guide future talks.
"Something on paper … that there's no confusion anywhere," Rubin said, adding that it would establish "terms of reference" for more detailed negotiations led by technical experts.
Without that foundation, Rubin warned, existing disputes are likely to persist.
"If we don't get that, the issues … are going to continue," he said.
Rubin added that a breakdown in diplomacy could ultimately lead to escalation.
"And I do think we'll probably be back at military action," he said.
The remarks from both officials underscore the uncertainty surrounding current U.S.-Iran tensions, as policymakers weigh diplomatic options against concerns about nuclear development and regional security.
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Solange Reyner ✉
Solange Reyner is a writer and editor for Newsmax. She has more than 15 years in the journalism industry reporting and covering news, sports and politics.
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