Despite a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, experts warned the disruption caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will not return to normal anytime soon.
Four transits were recorded Wednesday, a day after the ceasefire, S&P Global Market Intelligence said.
Hundreds of oil tankers and dozens of petroleum gas carriers remain anchored outside the Gulf, CNBC reported, citing MarineTraffic.
Even with a ceasefire and Iran's commitment to reopen the strait, conditions for ships to pass through remain undefined, marine research firm Winward told CNBC.
"Whether Iran will maintain control of Hormuz during talks is unclear but all signs point to the Islamic Republic refusing to give up its leverage during the two-week period," Windward told CNBC, noting the first 48 hours after the ceasefire will be crucial to how willing ships are to pass through the strait.
Nils Haput, a communication chief at Hapag-Lloyd, a large shipping firm, told CNBC a return to normalcy is "weeks" away.
"The issue is not solved ... [until] all the ships have left the Strait of Hormuz, because there are hundreds of thousands of containers at ports in India, Oman and Pakistan, which need to be transported into the Persian Gulf," Haupt said.
"It will take weeks, if not months, to reintroduce the original shipping schedules that we had before the start of the war," Haupt said.
Other analysts noted to CNBC that when the Houthis in Yemen disrupted the Red Sea last year, traffic never returned.
"As long as there's a threat of an attack, that's enough," Nikos Petrakos, managing director at maritime investment manager Tufton, said. "You don't actually need the attack."
"It's not purely a financial consideration," Petrakos said. "For now, most of them [captains] are rightfully thinking, 'I don't care how much the bonus is, it's not worth risking my life'. Over time, that might change."
Muyu Xu, an analyst with Kpler, told NBC News that Chinese ships were among the many vessels waiting for clearance to leave the strait, describing the process as confusing.
Ships "don't know whether they need to pay first, or they go past first and then Iran sends a bill? It's just a lot of uncertainty," Xu said.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot told France Inter radio that the European Union and its partners were finalizing plans to set up a mission to escort ships through the Strait.
"Once calm has been fully restored," Barrot said. "Work is well advanced."
Sam Barron ✉
Sam Barron has almost two decades of experience covering a wide range of topics including politics, crime and business.
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