For the first time in at least 50 years, more immigrants left the United States than entered in 2025, according to updated estimates released Tuesday by economists at the Brookings Institution.

Net migration fell by anywhere from 10,000 to 295,000 last year, based on updated modeling from Brookings economists Wendy Edelberg and Tara Watson and American Enterprise Institute economist Stan Veuger.

While Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests and removals have drawn headlines, the researchers say the larger driver was a slowdown in new arrivals tied to President Donald Trump's border and visa policies — from the near-closure of the U.S.-Mexico border to new restrictions, higher fees, and the winding down of humanitarian programs, including for nearly all refugees.

Deportations also played a role. The economists estimate there were roughly 300,000 deportations in 2025 — below the approximately 600,000 the Trump administration has described.

The Brookings estimates clash with a separate set of figures released last week by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, which put net migration around 400,000 in 2025. The difference largely comes down to assumptions about outflows: the CBO model assumes fewer deportations and fewer voluntary departures than the Brookings approach.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration and immigration-restriction advocates, including the Center for Immigration Studies, have argued net migration was even more negative, based on higher estimates of both departures and deportations. Official government migration counts for 2025 won't be available until later this year and may still lack precise data on how many people left.

Looking ahead, the economists say the U.S. is already on track to lose more immigrants than it gains again in 2026 — with significant economic consequences.

"The slowdown implies weaker employment, GDP, and consumer spending growth," they wrote.

They also warned that the outlook is harder to pin down because of "recent reductions in data transparency," including a pause in State Department visa issuance statistics since May.

Trump celebrated the trend on social media in August, even though official 2025 migration data had not yet been released.

"Promises Made. Promises Kept. NEGATIVE NET MIGRATION for the First Time in 50 Years!" he wrote on Truth Social.

The White House has also argued reduced immigration lowers crime and improves job and housing access for U.S.-born workers – claims contested by many economists.

DHS said in December that 1.9 million undocumented immigrants "voluntarily self-deported" since January 2025 — far higher than Brookings' estimate of 200,000 to 400,000 voluntary exits in 2025 among both authorized and unauthorized immigrants.

Brookings estimates consumer spending could drop $60 billion to $110 billion across 2025 and 2026 as fewer immigrants arrive and some leave. The economists add that weaker demand could blunt inflation effects, even as job growth slows.

They note immigration had been driving nearly all U.S. population and workforce growth amid aging demographics and falling fertility.

• In the Trump Administration, Nearly Every Major Department Is an Immigration Agency
• Coming to America? In 2025, the US to Some Looks Less like a Dream and More like a Place to Avoid