Gold was once considered a legacy investment, tucked away in vaults and largely forgotten. Today, that reputation has changed. In a world of constant economic uncertainty, the 'dull metal' is in demand.

Investors are turning to gold as a source of stability. Tensions with Iran, slowing U.S. GDP, persistent inflation, and a Supreme Court decision affecting trade policy are all pushing demand higher. Record prices reflect this growing interest, with the metal showing signs of establishing a strong floor near $5,000 an ounce.

Iran Conflict Is Driving Safe-Haven Demand

Geopolitical risk has always pushed investors toward gold, and the situation with Iran is raising the stakes. The region remains critical for global energy supply, and disruptions there ripple quickly through markets.

Rising energy costs contribute to inflation and create uncertainty in financial markets. Investors respond by moving money into assets with a long track record of holding value, and gold fits that description. Analysts are saying gold prices could rise by as much as 15% if the U.S. launches an attack on Iran.¹

Slow Growth and Sticky Inflation Strengthen Gold's Role

Gold is drawing demand not just as a safe haven, but as a trusted monetary asset as economic data looks more dismal. Growth is slowing while inflation remains above target. Real GDP expanded by only 1.4 percent, down from 4.4 percent in the third quarter and below expectations of about three percent.

Core inflation held close to three percent, and Core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure, was also around three percent. Both remain well above the Fed’s two percent target, largely due to continued service price pressures.²

This combination of slow growth and persistent inflation is creating a 'stagflation-lite' environment.  Pressure is being placed on purchasing power as confidence in traditional financial assets falls.

The Federal Reserve is facing a narrow path forward. If it lowers interest rates too quickly, inflation could remain elevated, but if it keeps policy tight while the economy slows, the risk of recession increases.

Gold offers protection because it does not rely on corporate earnings or economic expansion. Its scarcity and long history as a store of wealth give it lasting appeal. Investors are increasingly using gold to balance portfolios and safeguard against these economic pressures.

Trade Uncertainty Adds Another Layer

Trade policy has become another source of market stress. The Supreme Court recently struck down the president’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs, creating new uncertainty for businesses and investors.

Companies face unpredictable costs and changing rules, which makes long-term planning harder. In this setting, assets that do not depend on trade policy, such as gold, become more attractive.

Potentially lower tariffs could ease inflation and boost expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. With interest rates lower, the opportunity cost of holding gold falls, helping push prices higher.

Gold as a Core Portfolio Holding

For central banks, Wall Street, and Main Street, gold is being treated as a core holding rather than a speculative trade. Pullbacks have been brief, with buyers consistently stepping in. Investors are using price dips as opportunities to add positions. Such steady demand reinforces the foundation under prices and signals confidence in its long-term role.

Financial institutions are raising projections as the risks remain in place. UBS expects prices near $6,200 by mid-2026, BMO sees a credible path to $6,500 by late 2026, and JPMorgan revised its end-of-year forecast to $6,300, up from $5,400.

Some long-term forecasts even suggest gold could reach $8,500 to $10,000 by 2028 or 2030, factoring in dollar weakness, central bank demand, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. These projections underscore that the floor near $5,000 is not temporary but part of a broader trend.³

Why This Matters

Seemingly separate forces are all pushing gold in the same direction, up. Conflict in the Middle East raises uncertainty. Slowing growth and high inflation create pressure on income and savings. Trade policy shifts add further unpredictability. Together, they are creating sustained demand for gold and make it a stabilizing asset in a volatile environment.

Gold stands apart because its value does not depend on tariff decisions, supply chains, or corporate earnings. When trade policy shifts, businesses face higher costs and tighter margins, which can weigh on stocks.

When growth slows and inflation stays high, the purchasing power of cash and bonds erodes. And when geopolitical conflict escalates, financial markets often react quickly to new risks. Gold does not carry those same dependencies, and investors recognize that independence as a key reason to hold it.

The steady demand shows investors are thinking long term and recognize the global economy is going through a fundamental restructuring, not just a short-term reset. Far-sighted tools like a Gold IRA allow investors to hold physical gold in a tax-advantaged account, providing both diversification and protection for years to come.

With the floor near $5,000 holding firm and upside potential still significant, now is a smart time to explore gold and consider a Gold IRA through a trusted dealer such as American Hartford Gold, where guidance and confidence go hand in hand.

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Machi Block is a Senior Director at American Hartford Gold and a trusted precious metals specialist. He helps Americans protect their savings with physical precious metals and shares perspectives on topics such as inflation, market volatility, and economic uncertainty.

Notes:

1. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-02-20/gold-reclaims-5000-middle-east-tensions-boost-safe-haven-demand

2. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-02-20/gold-reclaims-5000-middle-east-tensions-boost-safe-haven-demand

3. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-02-20/world-just-one-post-away-chaos-now-not-time-short-gold