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Wells Strategist Jim Paulsen: 'Global Bounce' to Lead to Lengthy Recovery

Wells Strategist Jim Paulsen: 'Global Bounce' to Lead to Lengthy Recovery

By    |   Monday, 03 October 2016 03:18 PM

 


 


Wells Capital Management Chief Investment Strategist Jim Paulsen said he sees a “global bounce” on the horizon as part of a worldwide economic recovery.

"I think there is a global recovery or a global bounce happening … that I think will help spur some optimism again," he told CNBC.

He said October will be essential for getting a "first read" on earnings momentum and the GDP.

The strategist also said that this will be a slow but long-lasting recovery, possibly surpassing the record for the longest recovery for the United States, which stands at 10 years.

"There is a lot of refreshment that's going on here, not the least of which is a huge drop in the rate structure, the competitive interest against which we judge equities across the globe," he said.

But he did warn that "lower rates, lower evaluations, and more pessimism" lead to a lengthier recovery.

But not everyone is as optimistic on the economy.

 

Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic adviser and a Newsmax Finance Insider, warns that lingering dismal economic growth could eventually push us all into yet another recession.

"We could easily see a situation where low growth becomes recession. Artificial stability becomes instability," El-Erian told CNBC.

"[But] if governments step up ... we can transition to a higher growth scenario that validates prices."

"We are in an artificial period that we'll come out of at some stage," he said, advising investors to build up cash.

El-Erian isn't alone in his warnings about the economy.

A respected U.S. central bank official and a team of economic strategists have warned that the nation is flirting with the brink of a recession. UBS Global Macro estimates a nearly one-in-three chance of a recession.

“UBS' credit model, designed to find the likelihood of a recession over the next few quarters, considers four corporate credit measures: interest coverage, leverage, loan performance, and bank lending standards with recessions,” Business Insider explained.

“Based on the historical relationship between those measures and ensuing recessions, the bank's model estimates the risk of a recession at 31% over the next year, from Q2'16 to Q2'17,” BI reported.  

The U.S. economy last entered a recession — defined as two consecutive quarters of year-on-year economic contraction — in December 2007, after the housing bubble burst, leading to a global financial crisis. That recession, dubbed the Great Recession, ended in mid-2009, making it the longest U.S. recession since the end of World War II, CNBC reported.

(Newsmax wire services contributed to this report).

© 2020 Newsmax Finance. All rights reserved.


   
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Wells Capital Management Chief Investment Strategist Jim Paulsen said he sees a "global bounce" on the horizon as part of a worldwide economic recovery.
wells fargo, jim paulsen, economic, rally
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2016-18-03
Monday, 03 October 2016 03:18 PM
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