Tags: hillary clinton | donald trump | stock market | rbc

RBC: Market to Rally 4 Percent Should Hillary Win, Expect 12 Percent Plunge if Trump Triumphs

RBC: Market to Rally 4 Percent Should Hillary Win, Expect 12 Percent Plunge if Trump Triumphs

By    |   Tuesday, 08 November 2016 03:33 PM EST

RBC Capital Markets advised investors to prepare for a potential 3-4 percent rally should Hillary Clinton win the White House, and a 10-12 percent drop on a Donald Trump victory, CNBC reported.

"The events of the last two weeks provide investors with an excellent preview of how the market might respond to the outcome of today's election," The firm's chief U.S. market strategist, Jonathan Golub, wrote in a research note.

The analysis conducted by RBC was based on the recent events that have transpired in the weeks ahead of the election, specifically the moves in stocks, currencies, commodities and rates in response to FBI Director James Comey's letters to Congress, CNBC reported.

And Trump is poised to win the election, according to a professor who's unique method helped him predict the last 30 years of presidential elections.

Allan J. Lichtman, distinguished professor of history at American University in Washington, D.C., uses a set of 13 true/false statements to determine the winner of the presidential election.

If six of those statements are false, then the party that holds the White House will lose it. Uses "the keys to the White House," he's correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in every American presidential election since 1984.

"The 13 keys are a historically based prediction system that were founded on the study of every presidential election from 1860 to 1980, and I've since used them prospectively to predict, often well ahead of time, the results of all eight elections from 1984 to 2012," Lichtman told The Washington Post on Friday.

He previously spoke to the Postwhere he said Democrat's held a tenuous hold on the White House, but that Trump was most likely to win.

"Early on, the keys were inconclusive. That is, remember, six or more and the party in power is the predicted loser. And for some time, there were five keys out against the incumbent Democrats."

The final nail in the coffin for Democrats, according to Lichtman, is Libertarian Gary Johnson.

The "sixth key has turned against the Democrats, and that is the third party key, and that is based on an assessment that you would expect the third-party candidate, in this case the Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, to get 5 percent or more of the vote.

 

"That's a big sign of discontent with the party holding the White House. And so, again on the knife edge, you had exactly six fatal keys against the incumbent Democrats."

Despite Trump's unknowingly recorded comments about women and the multiple sexual misconduct allegations against him, Lichtman sees the Republican taking the presidency.

"Donald Trump's severe and unprecedented problems bragging about sexual assault and then having 10 or more women coming out and saying, 'Yes, that's exactly what you did' — this is without precedent," Lichtman said. "But it didn't change a key."

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StreetTalk
RBC Capital Markets advised investors to prepare for a potential 3-4 percent rally should Hillary Clinton win the White House, and a 10-12 percent drop on a Donald Trump victory.
hillary clinton, donald trump, stock market, rbc
470
2016-33-08
Tuesday, 08 November 2016 03:33 PM
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