Dec 22, 2025
It's that time of year when Wall Street polishes up its crystal balls and begins predicting returns for 2026. Since Wall Street never predicts a down year, which would be unwise for fee-based product revenues, these forecasts are often inaccurate and sometimes significantly...
Dec 18, 2025
A recent article by Simon White, via Bloomberg, discussed the rising cost of margin debt for investors. While his analysis below compares the cost of debt to GDP, we will also consider a more critical comparison to disposable personal income (DPI).
Dec 16, 2025
As someone who views corporate finance through a pragmatic lens, I've been closely watching the current surge in capital expenditures (capex) tied to artificial intelligence (AI).
Dec 2, 2025
One of my favorite writers for the WSJ is Spencer Jakab, who recently penned an article explaining why a bear market is not necessarily a bad thing. He starts with a quote from "The Godfather."
Nov 25, 2025
The U.S. economy's recent growth has a distinctive engine: large-scale capital expenditures (capex) tied to artificial intelligence (AI). Firms such as Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Meta Platforms, and Amazon have announced massive investments in data centers, servers,...
Nov 19, 2025
Over the past two weeks, we've addressed a persistent question: if the data signals weakness, why hasn't the recession arrived?
Nov 10, 2025
I recently penned an article on "Money Supply Growth," which elicited a very thoughtful response from Garrett Baldwin via Substack.
Nov 3, 2025
In case you haven't heard, precious metals, particularly gold, have risen sharply this year. Of course, whenever any asset class experiences a more speculative melt-up, investors are quick to rationalize why "this time is different."