Gold is up 17 percent since the beginning of the year, handily beating the 7 percent decline for the S&P 500 stock index, as investors pile into the yellow metal through options contracts, exchange-traded funds and even physical holdings.
Investors are betting the price will climb further amid the uncertainties in global economic performance and the efforts by central banks to weaken their currencies as a way of juicing up demand.
The average daily trading volume of call options this month on the SPDR Gold Trust hit the highest level since the eurozone debt crisis in 2011 when gold prices neared a record, according to options-data provider Trade Alert
cited by The Wall Street Journal. A call option grants the right to buy shares of the underlying stock or ETF at a certain price.
Amid the tumult so far this year, investors have poured money into the ETF, known by its ticker GLD, the WSJ reports. Net flows into the ETF so far this month are on track to be the third biggest ever, according to Morningstar. GLD is the biggest ETF tied to gold, with $29.5 billion in assets.
Marc Cuban, the owner of the Dallas Mavericks basketball team, said earlier this month that he was investing in gold by buying “a lot” of GLD call options. For the same price he can buy more call options than ETF shares, effectively leveraging his exposure to a rise in gold.
“I think when there is confusion in the market and popular trades stop working people go to gold as a confusion trade,” he said in an email.
Other observers see a selling opportunity coming.
Harry S. Dent Jr., an economic who publishes an investing newsletter,
said gold’s surge suggests the possibility of a 13 percent gain from
today’s levels to $1,400 an ounce by April – at which point people should start dumping the metal.
“The strength of the first wave up from $1,050 to $1,255 suggests a higher target than I’d originally eyed, more like $1,400 instead of $1,300, likely into around early April,” he writes. “If this occurs, it will be the last chance to sell gold and silver at more reasonable prices. I still expect gold to fall to as low as $700 by early to mid-2017.”
The biggest risk for gold bugs is that the Federal Reserve will continue to hike interest rates as the job market strengthens and the U.S. economy avoids a recession. Higher rates would strengthen demand for the dollar as investors allocate more funds to fixed income investments.
Inflation has remained tame, though, which argues for more monetary stimulus similar to what Japan and Europe are doing.
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