After almost two years of fighting in Ukraine, there are signs that Russia's failure to quickly win the war has slightly dented the Russian public's confidence in the military, according to a Gallup survey.

Confidence in the Russian military still remains high, but it is slipping.

Three in four Russians (75%) interviewed this past summer expressed confidence in the military, which is down from the 80% measured by Gallup in the early months of the war.

The Wagner Group mutiny attempt in June was a significant public challenge to President Vladimir Putin's authority that put both military competence and leadership approval into the spotlight.

The Russian mercenary group marched on Moscow in a shock mutiny that was later called off, following a reported deal between Putin and its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who was later killed in a plane crash.

Falling confidence in Russia's military may also be attributable to huge casualty figures from the Ukraine war.

The total number of Ukrainian and Russian troops killed or wounded since the war in Ukraine began is nearing 500,000, U.S. officials said, The New York Times reported Aug. 18.

"Russia's military casualties, the officials said, are approaching 300,000. The number includes as many as 120,000 deaths and 170,000 to 180,000 injured troops. The Russian numbers dwarf the Ukrainian figures, which the officials put at close to 70,000 killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded," The New York Times reported.

The five-point drop in military confidence in 2023 may be of some concern to the Kremlin, Gallup notes. "During a period when confidence in many other state institutions rose significantly, the fact that the military bucks the trend is noteworthy."

Russians' faith in other institutions remains high, Gallup observes. Confidence in the police, financial institutions, and the judicial system have increased in 2023, with all three reaching record highs since Gallup began tracking these data in Russia.

The military was the only institution to decline in confidence in 2023. "Men and women, young and old, rich and poor alike have all expressed less confidence in their military this year than in 2022," Gallup says.

Since 2018, faith in the military has collapsed among those who disapprove of Russia's leadership.

In the last few years, Russians who disapprove of the Kremlin's leadership have grown increasingly critical of the military. While leadership disapproval alone does not necessarily cause a lack of military confidence, and vice versa, the collapse of military confidence among those already disapproving of Russian leadership could have wider implications, Gallup says.

"If people's confidence in the military continues to fall in 2024, this may pose an even greater challenge to Russian leadership in maintaining public support for the conflict it has yet to win," Gallup wrote.

Gallup World Poll surveys includes at least 1,000 individuals. In some large countries, such as China and Russia, sample sizes of at least 2,000 are collected.

With some exceptions, all samples are probability based and nationally representative of the resident population aged 15 and older. The coverage area is the entire country including rural areas, and the sampling frame represents the entire civilian, non-institutionalized adult population of the country.

No margin of error was provided for this survey.

"Polling in authoritarian regimes can be difficult," euronews.com cautions. "The Kremlin fiercely represses anti-war dissent and spends millions on pro-war propaganda, meaning they may not reflect the realities of the situation."

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